Thursday, January 5, 2023

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Further Weakness Expected in Cash

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 3 Higher
Soybean Futures: Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures: 3 to 5 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures were under pressure again Wednesday as the weakness of cheese continued. Buyers of dairy products are not concerned over supply as increased milk production leaves sufficient available to the market for both bottling and manufacturing needs. Milk production is not expected to slow down with USDA estimating production to reach another record this year. There remains concern over the level of demand we will be seeing this year. Dairy prices in other countries are seeing a decline as was reflected on the recent Global Dairy Trade auction. The Baltic Dry Goods Index is a measure of global shipping and economic health, and it had the worst one-day decline on record Tuesday. The decline was a result of strong prospects of a global recession. This was the largest daily decline since 1984. This may be an indication of what is to come. USDA will announce the December Federal Order class prices today.

CHEESE:

With limited cash activity and the recent weakness, spot cheese prices may not be finished declining. Lower prices could increase buyer interest if they believe demand will hold. However, increased cheese production will build inventory. Further price weakness is expected Thursday.

BUTTER:

Price has held steady for five consecutive days with limited activity during the time. Buyers and sellers are taking care of most of the business out in the country leaving little reason to come to the spot market. If demand slows further, more butter might show up on the spot market hoping to find a buyer. This could put more pressure on price.



Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Cash Markets Provide Little Direction

OPENING CALLS: Class III Milk Futures: Mixed Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed B...