Tuesday, November 8, 2022

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures May Settle Back

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 10 to 15 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: 5 to 7 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: Mixed
Wheat Futures: 5 to 7 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures have made an impressive rebound over the past few days but might now run out of steam. However, that will depend on what underlying cash does as that will be the driver of the market. There is a slim chance price will continue to trend higher as the recent price increase may follow the pattern of limited upside under the current market environment. Milk production continues to slowly improve, leaving sufficient milk for both bottling and manufacturing. Fluid milk demand is steady while cheese demand is variable. The increase of milk futures might be short lived if buyers of cheese fill orders, leaving them less aggressive again.

CHEESE:

Prices have trended higher but within the range that has developed since mid-September. Buyers have been able to purchase much of their cheese needs in the country but have needed to come to the spot market to fill in supply when orders arrive that cannot be filled through regular channels. Once those orders are filled, prices may slip back again. Hopefully, demand will remain strong for an extended period.

BUTTER:

Price has made a strong rebound, making one wonder why it fell as far as it had in the first place. Emotion can always move prices higher or lower than fundamentals would suggest and that certainly seems to be the case. It is difficult to determine where price will settle out. Butter futures suggest there will be limited upside with lower prices to come. World prices have been weakening.




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