Friday, November 18, 2022

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Selling Pressure Continued in Overnight Trade

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 10 to 20 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: 5 to 15 Lower
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 3 to 4 Higher
Soybean Futures: 7 to 9 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures: 6 to 8 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures were under pressure yesterday due to weakness of barrel cheese and butter. Overnight futures showed follow through pressure as further liquidation continued. It is unclear yet whether prices have reached a level of buyer resistance or if this is just business being done on an as-needed basis. Lower price may bring buyers back into the spot market if orders need to be filled. Milk production continues to improve with components increasing and currently running better than a year ago. Overall weather is good for cow comfort. Milk plants are running nearly full schedules with more milk moving to manufacturing as bottling slows for school accounts. The October Milk Production report will be released on Monday.

CHEESE:

Block cheese has held the gains of the past few weeks as demand for fresh cheese is strong with buyers coming to the spot market to pick up supply. Barrels are in the opposite position as supply has increased and/or demand has decreased. Barrel weakness may be temporary with lower increasing buying interest. However, this time of year is generally when much of the holiday demand has been filled except for ongoing fill-in buying. If so, cheese prices may weaken.

BUTTER:

Price weakness yesterday was the first decline in 10 consecutive trading sessions. Butter demand is termed as good for both food service and retail outlets. However, increased churning is increasing supply to the market. This may result in buyers stepping back a bit in anticipation of a lower price.




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