Tuesday, September 20, 2022

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Lower in Reaction to the Production Report

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 20 to 30 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 3 to 4 Higher
Soybean Futures: 1 to 3 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: Mixed
Wheat Futures: 4 to 6 Higher

MILK:

Class III milk futures held yesterday despite the divergence of cheese prices. Class IV futures held well despite the divergence of butter and nonfat dry milk. The movement of underlying cash will be uncertain today. The August Milk Production report was bearish to milk futures but how much influence it could have on cash trading is uncertain. The reason being is that this was a report showing production in August of which the milk has already been bottled and manufactured into dairy products. Buyers of cheese and butter have been purchasing based on the current market and expected demand. August milk has already been absorbed and has influenced the market. However, the trend of increased milk production and cow numbers may have a greater influence once holiday demand is satisfied.

CHEESE:

Overall demand for cheese is holding with some varieties seeing more demand than others. It is uncertain what level of demand may be seen this year as the holidays approach. Dairy product prices as higher than they were a year ago and interest rates are expected to increase again as the FOMC meets this week.

BUTTER:

The bounce of price yesterday may result in further buying today as there may be a desire of buyers to purchase the recent price dip. It may be difficult for price to make a new record high, but price may chop around at the current level for a time. Domestic demand has slowed somewhat but international demand remains strong.




Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - October Cheese and Butter Inventories Declined

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