Monday, June 13, 2022

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Concerned Over Further Weakness

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Steady to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures: 18 to 22 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $4 to $6 Lower
Wheat Futures: 6 to 10 Higher

MILK:

Trading activity is expected to be light prior to spot trading as traders will be uncertain over the direction of underlying cash. Inflation at the highest level in over 40 years has some concern rippling through the market. The level of demand will be watched closely, which may temper some of the buying in the spot market. Overall milk production has been holding well so far, but hotter weather will impact cow comfort as the summer progresses. Milk production is running below a year ago and is expected to continue that way the rest of the year. Cow numbers are not expected to increase as the availability of replacements is tight.

CHEESE:

Barrel cheese price dropping back Friday to the lowest level it has been since March 31 does not bode well. Cheese prices have been declining, while at the same time Class III futures have been increasing. The optimism of futures will not influence spot cheese prices.

BUTTER:

Demand remains strong overall, but high price may begin to slow demand. There had been reports of slowing retail demand but that may trickle down into the food service industry as well due to high inflation. Butter production has been steady, meeting demand and increasing inventory. Trading activity on the spot market has been strong with quite a few loads traded over the past weeks. Buyers have been purchasing ahead of time but that may slow soon.




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