Friday, June 10, 2022

Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - USDA Lowers Milk Production Estimates

MILK

Milk futures closed the day steady to lower with Class III futures showing the greatest losses. Class III contract held extra premium making it ripe for selling with underlying cash price weakness. July Class III futures saw gains for the week eliminated while later contracts retraced significantly. Class IV futures showed losses today in most contracts but held most of the gains of the week. USDA released the World Agricultural Supply and Demand report today which was fairly neutral for grains. However, they did reduce expected milk production both this year and next year. Production was reduced 300 million pounds from last month to an estimated 226.4 billion pounds this year putting it only 100 million pounds above the level of 2021. Milk production for 2023 was reduced 200 million pounds from last month to an estimated 229.3 billion pounds. Exports on a fat basis remained unchanged at 12.0 billion pounds this year and were increased 100 million pounds next year totaling 11.6 billion pounds. Exports on a skim solids basis were raised 200 million pounds to 50.1 billion pounds this year and lowered 100 million pounds totaling 50.9 billion pounds for 2023. Class III milk price was raised 15 cents to $22.90 and raised 15 cents next year to $20.65. Class IV was raised 85 cents this year to $24.65 and raised 50 cents next year to average $21.90. The All-milk price was raised 45 cents to $26.20 and raised 25 cents next year to an average of $23.80.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month: $24.54
6 Month: $24.46
9 Month: $23.90
12 Month: $23.31

CHEESE

USDA raised the average cheese price this year to $2.1950, up 2 cents for the May estimate according to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand report. They raised their price estimate for next year by a penny to an average of $2.05. Dry whey price was reduced 1.50 cents for May to now average 64 cents per pound this year. Price was left the same at 52 cents for 2023. For the week, blocks declined 1.50 cents with 6 loads traded. Barrels declined 0.25 cent with 21 loads traded. Dry whey declined 1.50 cents with 7 loads traded.

BUTTER

USDA raised their estimated butter price to $2.7650 per pound this year, up 11.50 cents from the May estimate. Price for 2023 was raised 3.50 cents to an average of $2.3850. Nonfat dry milk price was raised 4 cents this year to $1.7550 and raised 4 cents next year to $1.6200.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

July corn gained 0.25 cents closing at $7.7325. July soybeans fell 23.50 cents ending at $17.4550 with July soybean meal up $1.60 closing at $429.10 per ton. July wheat slipped 0.50 cents closing at $10.7075. June live cattle declined $0.85 closing at $136.20. July crude oil declined $0.84 per barrel closing at $120.67. The DOW fell 880 points ending at 31,393 while the NASDAQ fell 414 points ending at 11,340.




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