Wednesday, January 5, 2022

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Follow-Through Dairy Buying to Continue

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 15 to 25 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: 15 to 20 Higher
Butter Futures: 2 to 3 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures: 2 to 5 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures: 7 to 10 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures jumped Tuesday with early strength prior to spot trading and then pushing significantly higher after spot trading. Buyers of cheese and butter were aggressive. Support also came from the determination that Canada Canada is breaching its USMCA commitments by reserving most of the in-quota quantity in its dairy tariff-rate quotas for the exclusive use of Canadian processors limiting the import potential from the U.S. Both cash and futures reacted with strong buying. Increased demand with a potential tightening supply will increase prices. How much this will impact supply and demand has yet to be seen. The strong increase of milk futures with three Class III contracts closing limit up was sure to carry through in the overnight trade. February Class III futures pushed over $22.00 overnight on higher than usual trading activity.

CHEESE:

The strong increase of block cheese Tuesday moved price over $2.00 where it had not been since Nov. 12, 2020. Buyer interest has not slowed with price resistance not yet reached. The potential for increased exports to Canada may keep buyers aggressive as they increase ownership of supply.

BUTTER:

Buyers turned more aggressive yesterday even as price increased. Price has increased 55 cents since mid-December with the potential for yet higher prices as the market looks for greater export opportunities. Churning schedules are increasing, but it will take some time before depleted inventory will be replenished.




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