Monday, January 3, 2022

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Begin the Year Lower

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 8 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 4 to 7 Higher
Soybean Futures: 15 to 20 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $4 to $6 Higher
Wheat Futures: 2 to 4 Higher

MILK:

Trading of dairy futures is expected to be slow until there is direction from underlying cash. Overnight indication is that Class III futures might trade lower as there are concerns buyers of cheese might now be satisfied with current supplies for a little while. That does not mean prices will fall back but it may indicate some stability for a period of time. In general, schools will be back in session this week. However, there are some school systems that have announced they will return to virtual instruction for a period of time due to the surge of COVID-19. This does seem to be very widespread at the current time. That is not expected to impact overall milk demand as what is not consumed in school is consumed at home as we saw in 2020. Front-month December futures will cease trading on Tuesday with the December Federal Order prices to be announced on Wednesday.

CHEESE:

Buyer of cheese have been aggressive with price pushing higher. A dramatic change in the market is not expected just because it is a new year. However, retailers will take stock of end of the year demand before placing orders. Football playoffs and the Super Bowl will be events that are noted for increased cheese demand over the next month.

BUTTER:

The strength of butter may continue as buyers purchase to increase ownership as the new year progresses. Cream is more available allowing butter production is increase. It will take some time to rebuild inventory as strong demand has reduced the inventory substantially below a year ago.




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