Tuesday, December 21, 2021

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Production Report Provides Little Direction

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 2 to 4 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: Steady to $1 Lower
Wheat Futures: 2 to 4 Lower

MILK:

Traders did not receive enough information from the November Milk Production report to move the market overnight. The large revision of milk production and production per cow on the October report minimized some of the impact of reduced milk production due to continued culling and the reduction of the nation's dairy herd. This trend may be slowing but it will not change course anytime soon. The driving force over the next few months will be the level of demand from domestic and international markets. It is uncertain how this surge of COVID cases moving across the world might impact dairy demand. It may not have much of a negative impact with more potential for a positive impact as seen over the past two years. The manufacture and distribution of dairy products may be the large issue. Milk futures are expected to be choppy prior to spot trading.

CHEESE:

Block cheese prices declined the past three days, falling to the lowest level since Dec. 9. Barrel price has declined four days with price down to the lowest level since Dec. 2. It certainly appears the market may have established a top for the time being. Holiday demand has been filled, along with some forward purchasing for rebuilding inventory and anticipated first quarter demand already accomplished. USDA will release the November Cold Storage report Wednesday and will have an influence on prices based on what was in inventory at the end of the month.

BUTTER:

Price continues to hang out near the current level with the current market neither bullish nor bearish. Demand remains strong. Cream supply is beginning to loosen a bit, which will allow churning activity to increase once we move through the holiday period. Inventory will close the year significantly lower than a year ago.




Thursday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cash and Futures Show Little Interest

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY: CORN: 4 Higher SOYBEANS: 12 Higher SOYBEAN MEAL: ...