Thursday, November 4, 2021

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Balance Supply and Demand

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures: 3 to 6 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures: 2 to 5 Higher

MILK:

It has been a difficult week so far and a brutal past two weeks. Cheese prices have plummeted especially for barrels. This has completely eliminated support in the Class III market. December futures have fallen to the levels last seen a month ago. Milk production is slowing overall but increasing seasonally from the low level of summer. The Dairy Products report Thursday will provide information on product production in comparison to a year ago. This will provide information on the level of demand for the month and a sense of market direction through the end of the year. Bottling demand has been steady, but holiday specialty items will increase demand for fluid milk.

CHEESE:

The weakness of cheese has been a surprise at this time of year. However, the peak may have been reached early as buyers have been actively purchasing earlier in order to make sure orders are filled in light of some of the continuing problems with product movement and deliveries. Reduced staffing continues to have an impact on production. Most of the buying for the holidays may have already been accomplished with general buying on an as-needed basis much of the business yet to be done.

BUTTER:

Further weakness in butter may develop Thursday as buyers hold back waiting to see how aggressive sellers will be. However, lower prices will bring buyers back into the market as they need to fill orders. Price will not trend lower yet, but a setback may bring buyers back in more aggressively and push price up to the $2.00 level. Retail demand is strong with restaurant orders increasing.




Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Mixed Reaction to the Milk Production Report

OPENING CALLS: Class III Milk Futures: Mixed Class IV Milk Futures: 2 to 4 Lower ...