Monday, February 24, 2025

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Mixed Reaction to the Milk Production Report

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: 2 to 4 Lower
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 3 to 5 Lower
Soybean Futures: 4 to 6 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures: 8 to 10 Lower

MILK:

U.S. milk production up by 0.1% from January 2024 was unexpected and may keep the milk price potential limited. The 24-state increase was 0.2% with 9,000 more cows than in December. This may be factored in and a reason why overnight trade did not show significant price pressure. Production per cow in the U.S. was 7 pounds lower, but cow numbers were 41,000 head higher. We are heading toward spring flush, which could show an increase in milk production with the higher cow numbers. Milk futures may remain under pressure due to the continued weakness of dry whey and nonfat dry milk. The January Cold Storage report will be released on Wednesday, Feb. 26.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are expected to remain choppy as buyers see no need to be aggressive. Cheese demand has increased in some areas depending on variety, but overall demand remains lower than a year ago. Inventory is seasonally increasing but may not increase as much as usual.

BUTTER:

The butter price is expected to continue to chop around as buyers and sellers do business at the current price level. Butter inventory is increasing, which will limit upside price potential. Buyers have been able to purchase a good amount of butter recently on the spot market, which may reduce their aggressiveness later in the year.




Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Mixed Reaction to the Milk Production Report

OPENING CALLS: Class III Milk Futures: Mixed Class IV Milk Futures: 2 to 4 Lower ...