Monday, November 15, 2021

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Selling Pressure May Continue

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 1 to 3 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures: 2 to 5 Higher

MILK:

Milk output is slowly improving along seasonal lines keeping sufficient supply for demand. The weakness of cheese prices on Friday certainly did not improve the outlook for milk prices. USDA will release the October Milk Production report later this week, which may be key to end of the year milk prices. If milk production falls below year earlier levels, it may indicate supplies will tighten next year and prices will rise. However, if farms have reduced cow numbers sufficiently for the time being and possibly for the winter, resulting in stable cow numbers and a potential increase in production per cow, milk prices may have limited upside potential. It will be up to demand to push prices higher. There is growing concern over shipping of dairy products oversees due to the huge issue with shipping logistics. This might have a much greater impact on demand and prices.

CHEESE:

The decline of cheese on Friday set the tone for early this week unless more orders surfaced over the weekend that would cause buyers to come to the spot market aggressively. It appears retail buyers have placed orders earlier to avoid possible delivery delays resulting in the holiday buying peak finishing earlier. Further weakness of cheese is expected Monday.

BUTTER:

Price may chop around in the $1.90's through the end of the year. Production is lighter and inventory is decreasing, but there remains little concern over tight supply. Cream may begin to lessen in price over the next few weeks, making it more attractive for plants to again purchase off the spot market and increase production.




Friday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Butter and Cheese Prices Bounce

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY: CORN: 6 Higher SOYBEANS: 15 Higher SOYBEAN MEAL: ...