Tuesday, June 8, 2021

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Are Mildly Bearish

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 10 Lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 6 to 10 Higher
Soybean Futures: 10 to 15 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: 5 to 8 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures continue to slowly erode in nearby months. Contracts in 2022 have slipped but continue to hold well as there is concern over the impact high grain prices will have on milk production over time. The direct correlation we had seen a few weeks ago between milk futures and corn has decoupled as traders realized the change in milk production does not take place immediately. Current hot weather is impacting milk output, but temperatures should cool later this week in most areas, likely resulting in limited impact on overall production. Trade will be light with milk futures under slight pressure prior to spot trading.

CHEESE:

The weakness of blocks was just too much for barrels resulting in barrels moving lower. Blocks were expected to find some support due to lower price, but that has not yet been the case. Sellers remain willing to move cheese at lower prices in order to keep supply moving. Buyers continue to purchase but are letting the price come to them. Further weakness could again develop Tuesday.

BUTTER:

It appears butter is going to remain in a range for possibly quite some time. There is sufficient production to meet demand as well as building some supply. Weekly cold storage for the month of May showed an increase of butter stocks in the selected surveyed warehouses. That would seasonally not be surprising, but the demand increase from the food service industry may change the seasonal as growth from that sector has increased more rapidly than anticipated.




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