Thursday, April 8, 2021

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Ripe for Pullback

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 6 Lower
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 3 Higher
Soybean Futures: Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures: Mixed
Wheat Futures: 5 to 9 Higher

MILK:

The magnitude of the increase of Class III milk futures begs that there would be a price retracement as cash needs to catch up to futures. However, as long as there is underlying support with aggressive buying interest in the spot market, futures will remain supported. Some areas of the country are in spring flush with most of the rest of the country likely moving into it quickly due to early spring weather that is conducive for milk production. There is nothing to slow milk production down other than production restrictions that are, or already have been, implemented by processing facilities. However, this may not slow milk output as much as these restrictions did last year. Strong demand may limit the time these restriction may be in place.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices have been creeping higher as buyers continue to remain aggressive, it is interesting to see a few buyers showing up during spot trading each day to buy cheese and bid prices higher when there are reports of plentiful cheese supplies in the country. There seems to be a fear that supplies may tighten as the year progresses and buyers want to increase ownership to protect against higher prices. This keeps strong support under the market.

BUTTER:

Price has slipped three consecutive days, but the decline has been minor. A large part of price support has been exceptional exports. Exports of butter in February were 115.1% above February 2020. U.S. price is very competitive on the world market causing international buyers to turn to the U.S. market for supply. 




Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - March Inventory Remains Close to a Year Ago

MILK The recent bullishness of Class III futures came to an abrupt halt with contracts declining substantially over the past two day...