Wednesday, March 17, 2021

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Expect Limited Movement of Cash

Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Lower

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures: 1 to 3 Lower
Soybean Futures: 4 to 6 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $4 Lower
Wheat Futures: 3 to 5 Lower

Milk:

Class III milk futures have been declining over the past three days. Traders have been cautious over much further upside potential due to the limited movement of underlying cash. Contracts from May through December continue to hold at $18.00 or above, but some may decline below that level unless there is further strength of underlying cash. The decline of the Global Dairy Trade auction trade weighted average Tuesday along with only one lot of cheddar cheese traded, may indicate a change of trend for world prices. However, that is too early to tell. Some plants have initiated limits on production growth through the next few months. This has resulted in some farms seeking to move to another plant or to deliver some milk to other plants, depending on the size of the farm. Farms want to increase milk production more than some plants are allowing without penalty.

Cheese:

Prices has been supported and have been somewhat choppy. There is sufficient overall supply to meet demand. There is strong demand for fresh cheese, which keeps prices supported despite growth of inventory. It is interesting that some plants indicate their storage space is full, with milk receipts continuing to increase. This has turned plants from being buyers of loads of milk to turning offers down. Cheese prices should remain supported but may have a greater difficulty moving higher.

Butter:

Price seems to be at a level that buyers and sellers are comfortable doing business. The light trading on the spot market indicates buyers are able to get needed supply out in the country through regular channels. Cream supply is plentiful and will keep churning active. Price should remain choppy.




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