Monday, March 22, 2021

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Uncertain of Price Direction

Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Lower
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Lower

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures: 2 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures: 1 to 3 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures: 2 to 4 Lower

Milk:

Traders were unsure over the weekend whether the selling pressure of last week will continue this week. Seasonally, prices could continue to dip as milk production increases. However, strong demand may limit price weakness. It does appear that increasing restaurant demand may have been satisfied with buying from that sector of the economy settling down to regular ordering. The pipeline has been filled, satisfying increased demand. Milk production continues to remain strong and will remain above a year ago for the foreseeable future as long as milk prices look promising. Expansions and upgrading of facilities continue to position farms for the future. The February Cold Storage report will be released Monday, which may impact the direction of milk prices for the near term.

Cheese:

Cheese is expected to show an increase of inventory from January on the Cold Storage report Monday and higher inventory than a year ago. The numbers may be a bit skewed due to there being 28 days in February compared to 31 days in January. An adjustment can be made to compare cheese production on a daily basis, but generally this is not done as inventory is what is on hand. So, it really does not make any difference how many days were in the month.

Butter:

Much of the retail demand for butter for the Passover/Easter season has been filled. Restaurant demand has also been caught up with, leaving buyers less aggressive. The Cold Storage report is expected to show an increase of stocks from January and significantly higher than a year ago.




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