Friday, March 19, 2021

Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - Fluid Milk Sales Decline

MILK

Class III milk futures have settled lower for the week with closer contracts posting significant losses. Underlying cash did not perform as well as many had anticipated, resulting in slowly eroding futures prices. July through November were able to close above $18. April closed slightly above $17 and a far cry from where it was a little over a week ago. Fluid milk sales in January posted a substantial loss from January 2020. Conventional sales were down 5.7%. Whole milk sales dropped 2.7%, flavored whole milk sales increased 5.5%, reduced-fat milk declined 2.3%, low-fat milk fell 7.1%, fat-free skim fell 15.3%, flavored fat-reduced milk sales fell 31.6% and buttermilk declined 11.5%. Organic fluid milk sales increased 8.1%. Organic whole milk increased 6.0%, organic reduced-fat milk sales jumped 16.8%, organic low-fat milk increased 0.9%, organic fat-free skim declined 6.3% and organic flavored fat-reduced milk sales increased 7.3%. The result was a decline of 4.9% for total milk sales.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month: $17.02
6 Month: $17.55
9 Month: $17.82
12 Month: $17.78

CHEESE

For the week, blocks were unchanged with six loads traded. Barrels fell 10 cents with 13 loads traded. Dry whey increased 2 cents with two loads traded. Cheese demand reports are mixed with curd sales recently slowing, while other cheese sales holding well. Cheese plants have reported an increase of offers of spot milk this week with prices for those loads running $2 to $5 under class due to milk production increasing. Many plants are running at or near capacity. Barrel cheese price is weakening as supply is increasing more than demand.

BUTTER

For the week, butter declined 5 cents with five loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined 1.75 cents with 11 loads traded. Price was pressured this week due to the restaurant pipeline apparently filled sufficiently to meet current demand. Demand may slowly improve, but supply is sufficient to satisfy that demand and then some. USDA will release the February Cold Storage report Monday. It is expected to show an increase of inventory from the previous month and substantially higher than a year earlier.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

May corn jumped 11.25 cents, closing at $5.5775. May soybeans jumped 24 cents, ending at $14.1625, with May soybean meal up $9.70 per ton, closing at $407.90. May wheat declined 3.50 cents, ending at $6.27. April live cattle declined $0.17, ending at $118.40. April crude oil gained $1.42, closing at $61.42 per barrel. The Dow declined 234 points, closing at 32,628, while the NASDAQ gained 99 points, closing at 13,215.




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