Thursday, December 24, 2020

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Take a Break

 Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 7 to 11 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: Mixed

Milk:

It is as if traders are exhausted after three days of incredible volatility. They placed orders in the market and then went to bed to get a night of much-needed rest. It may also be close enough to Christmas that they just do not want to be very active Thursday with their focus being Christmas shopping. At any rate, there was no trading activity throughout the whole complex except for some trades in December 2021 butter at steady prices. The stimulus is on hold as President Donald Trump did not sign it; he is asking for more money for stimulus checks. The impact on dairy under the stimulus bill is unclear, but traders moved the market this week in anticipation of a similar impact as last year. The wrench in the works was the decline of cheese prices Tuesday. That set the tone for overnight trading. Markets will close at 12 p.m. CST Thursday and will reopen at 7 p.m. Sunday night.

Cheese:

Cheese prices threw a curve ball at the market Tuesday. It is possible, prices could move back down near where they were on Monday, but there remains optimism that demand will increase after the provisions of the stimulus bill are implemented. Traders are looking back to the impact on the market this year as a result of the Farmers to Families Food Box program and other benefits received through COVID aid. Cheese production will remain strong through the holiday period with very attractive spot milk prices.

Butter:

Butter continues to face some headwinds as production exceeds demand. There was a large decline of inventory in November, but some indication that stocks have increased in December. Supplies are large to close out the year, which may keep price potential limited. Cream handlers are struggling to find outlets for cream over the next few days. However, strong retail demand is expected to continue with buyers looking ahead to the first quarter of 2021.




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