Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - Butter and Cheese Inventories Decline In July

OVERVIEW:

Milk futures closed lower in response to the bearish milk production report and lower spot prices. The July Cold Storage report showed a good decline in butter inventory and a slight decline in cheese inventory.

MILK:

It was not long ago that September Class III futures were at $19.00. The close of today has September at $18.26. Futures have declined in the past three days as traders anticipated weakness and then reacted to it. Class IV futures followed a similar pattern, with futures declining over the past four days. More milk has been moving to bottling for school accounts, but that has had little impact on the market due to milk production running significantly higher than last year. It does not appear that this will change anytime soon. Farms are holding onto cows that normally might have been culled and are finding out that another lactation is showing better milk production in some cases, and the cow is able to have another crossbred calf that brings a substantial amount of money. Another added benefit is that the cow might be paid for rather than replacing it with an expensive heifer. The price of the beef-on-dairy calf sold after it is a few days old may hold the values of as much as 5,000 pounds of milk at $20.00 per cwt. Cows are not being culled as much to generate extra income anymore.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.80
6 Month:	$17.72
9 Month:	$17.66
12 Month:	$17.67

CHEESE:

The July Cold Storage report showed American cheese inventory decreasing by 2.9 million pounds, totaling 808.2 million pounds, and 2% above July 2024. The inventory of Swiss cheese decreased by 503,000 pounds to a total of 22.5 million pounds, and 1% above a year ago. Other cheese inventories increased 248,000 pounds and were 1% below a year ago. This resulted in total cheese inventory declining by 3.2 million pounds and is 1% above July 2024. For the week, blocks declined 2.50 cents with 18 loads traded. Barrels declined 2.00 cents with four loads traded. Dry whey declined by 4.50 cents with 15 loads traded.

BUTTER:

The inventory of butter declined by 24.0 million pounds to 331.4 million pounds, down 6% from July 2024. This was not a large decline, but a decline. Lower stocks than a year ago still have not been able to support the market. For the week, butter declined 6.50 cents with 16 loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined a penny with 28 loads traded.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed down .25 cent per bushel at $4.1150, November soybeans closed up 2.50 cents at $10.5850 and December soybean meal closed down $2.70 per ton at $291.50. December Chicago wheat closed down 2.50 cents at $5.2725. October live cattle closed up $3.15 at $237.88. October crude oil is up $0.14 per barrel at $63.66. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 853 points at 45,632, with the NASDAQ up 396 points at 21,497.

Friday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Butter Falls to Multi-Year Low

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	Unchanged
SOYBEANS:	5 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.70 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.32 Higher
DOW JONES:	923 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	426 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.20 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price declined 3.00 cents, closing at $1.75 with six loads traded. The barrel cheese price declined 5.00 cents, closing at $1.76 with no loads traded. Only uncovered offers remained for blocks and barrels at the close. The dry whey price declined 1.50 cents, closing at 55.50 cents with three loads traded. Class III futures are one cent higher to 22 cents lower. The only gain is seen in the August contract. The butter price slipped 0.50 cent, closing at $3.2350 with no loads traded. This moves the price to the lowest level since Dec. 22, 2021. Grade A nonfat dry milk remained unchanged at $1.26 with six loads traded. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. Butter futures are 1.75 to 5.50 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 0.15 to 1.40 cents lower. Cheese futures are steady to 1.50 cents lower. USDA will release the July Cold Storage report this afternoon.

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - USDA Will Release the July Cold Storage Report

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	10 to 20 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	5 to 12 Lower
Butter Futures:	2 to 3 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures:	2 to 3 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	Mixed
Wheat Futures:	2 to 3 Lower

MILK:

The July Milk Production report was bearish to the market and dims the potential for milk prices the rest of the year. U.S. milk production being up 3.4% indicates there will be sufficient milk supplies for both bottling and manufacturing. Any price increases may be temporary unless demand improves dramatically, or some other unforeseen event takes place that would tighten the milk supply. However, traders only need to look back at last year and the expected bullish impact that the bird flu was expected to have on milk production, which did not materialize. It will take much more bullish news to generate higher milk prices anytime soon. Culling remains slow, and cow numbers continue to increase, adding more milk to the market.

CHEESE:

The fall of the block cheese price on Thursday was unexpected, but again, indicated how prices can fall faster than they gain. The supply of cheese is not burdensome, but buyers see no need to buy aggressively for the upcoming demand. Cheese inventory is similar to what it was a year ago, and supplies are expected to have increased slightly in July. This may keep prices rangebound.

BUTTER:

If the butter price slips further, it will move to the lowest level since June 2023. The market is not following a seasonal pattern where buying interest is stronger in preparation for holiday demand. Butter inventory is lower than a year ago, but supplies are sufficient due to steady to lower demand from retail and food services. The price is not expected to see much upside potential the rest of the year. The July Cold Storage report may show a slight increase in butter inventory from June.

Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - July Milk Production Jumps 3.4%

OVERVIEW:

Milk futures sold off heavily in response to the weakness of the underlying cash. There was also some caution over the milk production report that was to be released. The report showed July milk production went up 3.4% over July 2024, putting further pressure on the market in late afternoon trading.

MILK:

The milk production report likely solidified the reality that milk prices may have limited upside potential throughout the rest of the year. Milk production in the top 24 states was 3.5% above July 2024. July production totaled 18.8 billion pounds. Milk production per cow jumped 36 pounds from a year ago, averaging 2,081 pounds. Cow numbers increased by 8,000 head from June, totaling 9.040 million head. This is 154,000 more than July 2024. Milk production in the U.S. totaled 19.6 billion pounds, up 3.4% from July 2024. Milk production per cow jumped 34 pounds to 2,063. Cow numbers increased by 10,000 head from June, with the total milk cow herd at 9.485 million head. This is 159,000 more than a year ago. The nation's dairy herd is the largest it has been since July 2021. This is the largest percentage increase so far this year, and at a time when milk production decreases due to hot weather. This is a bearish report, indicating that milk production will remain strong, keeping a sufficient milk supply available for demand.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.78
6 Month:	$17.73
9 Month:	$17.68
12 Month:	$17.71

CHEESE:

The block cheese price again fell faster than it increased and nearly eliminated the gains realized since the previous decline. Substantially higher milk production than a year ago in July will make it more difficult for prices to see much upside price potential. Cheese buyers may be less willing to purchase supplies aggressively, as there should be sufficient supply for demand. The July Cold Storage report will be released on Friday and is expected to show further increases in inventory.

BUTTER:

The fundamentals of butter have been more bearish than cheese, and the milk production report will maintain that bearishness. Ice cream production is slowing, and greater volumes of milk are being standardized for school accounts, leaving more cream available for churning. The July Cold Storage report is expected to show inventory below a year ago, but an increase in supply from June.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed up 7.75 cents per bushel at $4.1175, November soybeans closed up 20.00 cents at $10.5600 and December soybean meal closed down $3.00 per ton at $294.20. December Chicago wheat closed up 1.50 cents at $5.2975. October live cattle closed down $0.13 at $234.73. October crude oil is up $0.81 per barrel at $63.52. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 153 points at 44,786, with the NASDAQ down 73 points at 21,100.

July Milk Production in the United States up 3.4 Percent

July Milk Production up 3.5 Percent        

Milk production in the 24 major States during July totaled 18.8 billion pounds, up 3.5 percent from July 2024. June revised production, at 18.5 billion pounds, was up 3.4 percent from June 2024. The June revision represented an increase of 5 million pounds or less than 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate.  Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 2,081 pounds for July, 36 pounds above July 2024.   The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 9.04 million head, 154,000 head more than July 2024, and 8,000 head more than June 2025.   

July Milk Production in the United States up 3.4 Percent  

Milk production in the United States during July totaled 19.6 billion pounds, up 3.4 percent from July 2024.  Production per cow in the United States averaged 2,063 pounds for July, 34 pounds above July 2024.  The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.49 million head, 159,000 head more than July 2024, and 10,000 head more than June 2025. 

Thursday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Block Cheese Falls Back

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	6 Higher
SOYBEANS:	19 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$2.40 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.40 Higher
DOW JONES:	158 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	88 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$0.87 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 1.75 cents, closing at $1.8675 with three loads traded. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.81 for the second day, with one load traded. There were only two unfilled bids for loads of blocks remaining at the close of spot trading. Buyers are interested in buying, but not aggressively. The dry whey price decreased 2.25 cents, closing at 56.75 cents with seven loads traded. Class III futures are 1 to 20 cents lower. The butter price decreased by 3.00 cents, closing at $2.29 with five loads traded. One unfilled bid remained at the close of spot trading with 13 uncovered offers. Grade A nonfat dry milk decreased 0.75 cent to close at $1.2575 with five loads traded. Class IV futures are 16 to 17 cents lower. Butter futures are 3.12 cents lower to 0.07 cent higher. Dry whey futures are 1.00 cents lower to 0.27 cent higher.

Fluid Milk and Cream - Western U.S. Report 34

California milk production is lightening. Handlers convey hotter summer temperatures are taking hold and negatively impacting milk output. However, some manufacturers note milk intakes are above anticipated volumes. Handlers report July 2025 year over year milk production was up and August 2025 year over year milk production is also trending upward. Central Valley processors report balanced milk volumes, but downtime from equipment damage is expected to bring milk output closer to processing capacities.  

Milk production in Arizona is lighter. Handlers indicate August 2025 year over year milk production is trending upward. 

New Mexico farm level milk output is lighter. 

Pacific Northwest handlers indicate week over week milk production is generally steady, but fat components in milk output are decreasing. Manufacturers convey milk intakes are at anticipated volumes. 

Week over week milk production in the mountain states of Idaho, Utah, and Colorado are mixed. Colorado handlers convey milk decreases are milder than anticipated and year over year milk output is up this summer. Idaho stakeholders note spot milk volumes are ample enough to accommodate manufacturing needs. Class I demand varies from steady to stronger as some educational institutions are beginning the new school year now. Class II demand varies from steady to lighter throughout the region. Class III and IV demands are steady throughout the region. 

Cream availability is somewhat tighter and demand is steady. Cream multiples are unchanged this week. Condensed skim milk demand and availability are steady.

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - USDA to Release the July Milk Production Report

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	4 to 8 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	4 to 10 Lower
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures:	4 to 5 Higher

MILK:

Traders indicate they believe cheese prices may be near price resistance. Class III milk futures were lower despite stronger block cheese and steady barrel prices on Wednesday. Some of the pressure may be due to the expectation that milk production will continue to remain significantly above a year ago. I estimate July milk production to be 2.9% above a year ago, with cow numbers to be 4,000 head more than in June. Less expensive feed prices and high milk replacement prices should keep farmers holding onto cows. If milk output in July was strong, the potential for continued strength the rest of the year is certain.

CHEESE:

The block cheese price is 1.25 cents from the previous high of last week. The price may have difficulty moving above that level as sellers may take advantage of the higher price to move more cheese to the market. However, seasonal buying could provide support and push the price back to the high of early June.

BUTTER:

The butter price continues to struggle and could retest the low of 2.28 set on Aug. 14. A break below that level would move the price to the lowest level since April 29. The price has been moving counter-seasonally due to continued strong butter production throughout the year. The July Cold Storage report will be released on Friday and is expected to show increased inventory from July 2024.

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Global Dairy Trade Average Price Declined 0.3%

OVERVIEW:

Both Class III and IV futures posted similar losses, with most contracts showing double-digit losses. Traders still hold an overall bearishness in the market and continue to remain cautious.

MILK:

There is a tug of war between the potential for higher prices seasonally and the overall choppiness and times of weakness in the market. Higher milk output than a year ago may keep the upside price potential limited moving through the last half of the year. The USDA will release the July Milk Production report on Thursday. It is expected to show strong milk production relative to a year ago. I estimate milk production to be 2.9% above a year ago, with cow numbers up 4,000 head from June.

The Global Dairy Trade auction took place on Tuesday, resulting in the trade-weighted average declining 0.3% from the previous event. There were 36,553 metric tons of dairy products sold at an average price of $4,291 per metric ton. Anhydrous milk fat increased 0.1% to $7,078 per metric ton or $3.21 per pound. Butter decreased 1.0% to 7,144 per metric ton or $3.24 per pound. Cheddar cheese decreased 0.5% to $4,548 per metric ton or $2.06 per pound. Mozzarella decreased 2.7% to $4,447 per metric ton or $2.20 per pound. Skim milk powder decreased 1.8% to $2,756 per metric ton or $1.25 per pound. Whole milk powder increased 0.3% to $4,036 per metric ton or $1.83 per pound.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$18.01
6 Month:	$17.91
9 Month:	$17.84
12 Month:	$17.85

CHEESE:

Cheese output is steady to lighter in some cases due to lower milk production, due to weather impact, and more fluid milk moving to deficit areas for school system needs. Periods of cooler weather have resulted in slight increases in production. Spot milk availability has tightened in some areas, with prices ranging from $3.00 under to $2.00 over class. Cheese contracts and immediate orders are being filled without difficulty.

BUTTER:

The butter price is headed down to the previous low of $2.28. If it moves below that level, it will move back to the lowest level since April 29. It appears the butter price may have limited upside potential throughout the rest of the year if the current fundamentals persist. There are reports of butter production picking up as cream becomes available.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed up .75 cent per bushel at $4.0400, November soybeans closed up 2.25 cents at $10.3600 and December soybean meal closed up $1.30 per ton at $297.20. December Chicago wheat closed up 7.00 cents at $5.2825. October live cattle closed up $3.50 at $234.85. October crude oil is up $0.94 per barrel at $62.71. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 16 points at 44,938, with the NASDAQ down 142 points at 21,173.

Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Butter Shows Further Weakness

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	1 Higher
SOYBEANS:	2 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$2.27 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.90 Higher
DOW JONES:	8 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	169 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$5.11 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 1.75 cents, closing at $1.8675 with three loads traded. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.81 for the second day, with one load traded. There were only two unfilled bids for loads of blocks remaining at the close of spot trading. Buyers are interested in buying, but not aggressively. The dry whey price decreased 2.25 cents, closing at 56.75 cents with seven loads traded. Class III futures are 1 to 20 cents lower. The butter price decreased by 3.00 cents, closing at $2.29 with five loads traded. One unfilled bid remained at the close of spot trading with 13 uncovered offers. Grade A nonfat dry milk decreased 0.75 cent to close at $1.2575 with five loads traded. Class IV futures are 16 to 17 cents lower. Butter futures are 3.12 cents lower to 0.07 cent higher. Dry whey futures are 1.00 cents lower to 0.27 cent higher.

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Limited Price Volatility Ahead of Cash

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures:	$2 to $4 Higher
Wheat Futures:	1 to 2 Higher

MILK:

The movement in milk futures was not very exciting on Tuesday, with the underlying cash providing little to get excited about. The same might be true today as traders look ahead to the July Milk Production report to be released on Thursday. However, spot trading will influence the market. The current market fundamentals may not provide much direction in the near term. Demand for more fluid milk for school accounts is being readily met due to higher milk production compared to a year ago. Milk prices should increase seasonally due to the increased demand, but there may be a limit to the gains unless demand improves. Traders are content to scalp the market with short-term trades rather than pick a long-term price direction.

CHEESE:

The time of year would favor cheese prices increasing as buying increases in preparation for the fall and holiday season. Greater demand from both bottling and manufacturing is tightening the supply. Cheese plants are finding prices for available spot milk running $3.00 lower to $2.00 above class.

BUTTER:

The butter price may move in a sideways range in the near term as supply and demand seem to be balanced. As the calendar moves forward, time may be running out for the price to see a significant increase for the remainder of this year. International demand is strong, but it has not had much impact on the butter price.

Tuesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Traders Show Little Emotion

OVERVIEW:

Milk futures suffered minor losses with traders not finding sufficient reason to move the market one way or the other. It has been one of the least volatile days we have seen for a while.

MILK:

The increase in the block cheese price and the decrease in butter and powder prices left little for traders to take advantage of. There may be little reason for milk prices to increase much further unless the supply of milk tightens. However, with milk production significantly higher than a year ago, the upside price potential may be limited. More milk is moving to deficit milk areas as schools reopen and fluid milk demand increases. This reduces the available milk for manufacturing, but it will not create a milk-deficient market.

USDA will release the July Milk Production report on Thursday, which is expected to show higher production than in July 2024. Part of the reason is that the impact of bird flu is not as prevalent as it was last year, with another part being that cow numbers are significantly higher.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.95
6 Month:	$18.08
9 Month:	$17.99
12 Month:	$17.98

CHEESE:

The increase in the block cheese price during spot trading was offset by the decrease in dry whey. This left the Class III price calculation similar to what it was on Monday. The fact that no buyers or sellers showed up to do business in barrels increased the caution of traders. This could be looked at both ways, as buyers had no interest in bidding the price higher, which would be negative to the market. However, it could also mean that sellers have no interest in selling at a lower price. Barrels could just be taking a breather before increasing further.

BUTTER:

The decline in the butter price indicates it is not ready to trend higher. Sellers continue to offer supplies to the spot market rather than hold out for higher prices. Butter production has been running above last year's levels, keeping the market sufficiently supplied. The supply of cream is not abundant but adequate to keep churns active.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed down 3.25 cents per bushel at $4.0325, November soybeans closed down 7.50 cents at $10.3375 and December soybean meal closed up $4.10 per ton at $295.90. September Chicago wheat closed down 4.25 cents at $4.9850. October live cattle closed up $0.18 at $231.35. October crude oil is down $0.71 per barrel at $61.99. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 10 points at 44,922, with the NASDAQ down 315 points at 21,315.

Tuesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Butter Sets Back

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	3 Lower
SOYBEANS:	8 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$5.50 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.05 Higher
DOW JONES:	1657 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	Unchanged
CRUDE OIL:	$2.76 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased by 2.00 cents, closing at $1.85 with no load traded. No sellers showed up with two unfilled bids remaining at the closing of spot trading. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.81, with no loads traded and no buyers or sellers showing up to do any business. The dry whey price decreased 1.50 cents, closing at 59.00 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are 9 cents lower to 10 cents higher, with the only gain seen in the September contract. The butter price decreased 1.25 cents after two consecutive days of gains, closing at $2.32 with two loads traded. There were nine uncovered offers remaining at the close of spot trading with no unfilled bids. Grade A nonfat dry milk price slipped 0.50 cent to $1.2650 with no loads traded. Class IV futures are 7 to 12 cents higher. Butter futures are 0.15 to 1.26 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 0.77 to 1.25 cents lower. Cheese futures are 0.10 cent lower to 1.20 cents higher.

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Uneasy Over Spot Prices

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	4 to 8 Higher
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	3 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures:	$3 to $4 Higher
Wheat Futures:	2 to 3 Lower

MILK:

The strength in milk futures on Monday did not carry over into the overnight market. Short-term traders might liquidate recently established long positions ahead of spot trading in an attempt to take a profit rather than take a chance on the direction of the market. Seasonal buying is supporting the market, but the buying may be less than exuberant as cheese is available to the market. More milk is moving to bottling for school accounts, but higher production than a year ago will reduce the impact on available supplies.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices may move back to the previous highs as buyer interest continues. Buyers are looking ahead to demand later in the year and would rather purchase now than take a chance on higher prices later. However, higher milk production may limit the upside price potential for prices unless demand increases sufficiently to utilize the extra supply.

BUTTER:

The butter price seems to have found a bottom, with buyers expected to purchase at the lower price to increase their ownership for later demand. The price could move back near the level it was at in early July before the end of the year if demand improves for both retail and food service.

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Post Strong Gains

OVERVIEW:

Milk futures moved higher in response to the strength of the underlying cash. Class III futures were unable to hold the highs but posted double-digit gains in the September through December contracts.

MILK:

Milk futures have regained most of the losses from earlier last week. Seasonal buying has surfaced and may indicate that price breaks will be buying opportunities. Milk production has been impacted by hot weather, but overall production remains higher than a year ago.

USDA will release the July Milk Production report on Thursday, which should show strong gains over a year ago. Milk prices historically reach a peak in September or October as strong buying for the holidays runs its course. That is not very far away, as the calendar is nearing September. More milk is moving to school accounts as they start up for another year. This will reduce milk supplies for manufacturing but is not expected to tighten the market substantially.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.95
6 Month:	$17.96
9 Month:	$17.91
12 Month:	$17.93

CHEESE:

Cheese prices rebounded nicely but did not regain the losses at the end of last week. Both blocks and barrels remain in a large sideways trading pattern that has developed since November and have not been able to break out of that range. There is a strong chance it could break out of the top of the range before seasonal buying runs its course.

BUTTER:

Butter may have established a low with buyers wanting to purchase supplies at the best price possible, rather than sitting on the sidelines waiting for another retracement that may not take place before buying for the end of the year is completed. Even though supplies may be sufficient for demand, buying may remain active to avoid paying higher prices later.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed up 1.25 cents per bushel at $4.0650, November soybeans closed down 1.25 cents at $10.4125 and December soybean meal closed down $2.70 per ton at $291.80. September Chicago wheat closed down 3.75 cents at $5.0275. October live cattle closed up $0.53 at $231.18. September crude oil is up $0.55 per barrel at $63.35. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 34 points at 44,912, with the NASDAQ up 7 points at 21,630.

Monday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Spot Prices Increase

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	2 Higher
SOYBEANS:	Unchanged
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$3.20 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.92 Higher
DOW JONES:	21 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	2 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$0.67 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 5.50 cents, closing at $1.83 with four loads traded. The barrel cheese price increased 3.00 cents, closing at $1.81 with three loads traded. There was only an unfilled bid remaining for a load of blocks at the close. The dry whey price increased 0.50 cent, closing at 60.50 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are 2 to 47 cents higher, with September showing the greatest gain. The butter price increased 3.25 cents, closing at $2.3325 with eight loads traded. There were two unfilled bids and two uncovered offers remaining at the close of spot trading. Grade A nonfat dry milk remained unchanged at $1.27 with 16 loads traded. Class IV futures are 2 to 25 cents higher. Butter futures are steady to 2.72 cents higher. Dry whey futures are 0.67 cent lower to 0.80 cent higher. Cheese futures are 0.40 to 4.70 cents higher.

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Cautious Over Cash Prices

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	2 to 3 Lower
Soybean Futures:	4 to 6 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures:	2 to 4 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures may not have much bullish news to move prices too much higher in the near term. The July Milk Production report will be released on Thursday, and the Cold Storage report on Friday. Before further direction from those reports, daily cash activity will determine price volatility. Traders continue to trade futures on a short-term basis, looking mainly to take a quick profit on daily price movements if they correctly guess the market direction. There have been no significant fundamental changes in the market, which may keep prices choppy.

CHEESE:

The weakness of cheese prices over the past two days may continue as buyers might hold back to see how aggressive sellers will be. Buyers want to purchase cheese but may not want to be aggressive due to the sufficient supply and the lack of a seasonal demand increase. Cheese prices may have reached a temporary threshold.

BUTTER:

Buyers may step up more aggressively at the low butter price. Holding back for yet lower prices may not be in their best interest as seasonal demand should improve. However, the fact that the price has trended lower through this time of year may reduce the price potential for the rest of the year.

Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - Cheese Prices Reach a Peak, While Butter Finds Support

OVERVIEW:

It was a volatile week for the cash cheese and milk futures contracts. Cheese prices reached a temporary peak, while butter may have found support. Milk production remains above a year ago.

MILK:

It was a volatile week for Class III milk futures, as early strength gave way to substantial declines, only to rebound somewhat at the close in the nearby months. This may be characteristic of the market in the near term as buyers look ahead to demand through the end of the year. They will balance supply with demand. Class IV milk futures declined much of the week, finding some stability on Friday as the butter price bounced.

Supply is expected to be sufficient for both cheese and butter, with price strength dependent on demand. Schools are and will be opening, increasing the demand for fluid milk. Milk is moving to deficit areas, pulling supplies from other areas that have a more abundant supply. However, this is not expected to have much of an impact on milk supplies or prices. Australian dairy exports declined 17.9% on a milk solids equivalent in June. Cheese exports declined 22.7%, and skim milk exports declined 6.1%. A substantial gain was seen in whole milk powder exports with an increase of 47.9%.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.95
6 Month:	$17.96
9 Month:	$17.91
12 Month:	$17.93

CHEESE:

For the week, blocks declined 7.50 cents with 17 loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.8345. Barrels declined 1.75 cents with no loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.8250. Dry whey gained 2 cents with five loads traded. The weekly average price is 59.65 cents. The block cheese price fell hard on Thursday with minor weakness Friday, while barrels declined Thursday and Friday.

BUTTER:

For the week, butter declined 5.50 cents with 36 loads traded. The weekly average price is $2.3010. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined 0.50 cent with 23 loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.2605. Butter may have found a bottom, but it is too early to tell. Buyers may step up more aggressively due to the low price. However, churning is active, and bulk butter continues to be put into storage.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed up 8 cents per bushel at $4.0525, November soybeans closed up 14 cents at $10.4250 and December soybean meal closed down $0.50 per ton at $294.50. September Chicago wheat closed up 3 cents at $5.0650. October live cattle closed up $3.83 at $230.65. September crude oil is down $0.80 per barrel at $63.16. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 35 points at 44,946, with the NASDAQ down 88 points at 21,623.

Friday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Butter Bounces

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	7 Higher
SOYBEANS:	14 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.80 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$3.75 Higher
DOW JONES:	135 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	74 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$0.85 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price slipped 0.25 cent, closing at $1.7150 with three loads traded. The barrel cheese price declined 4.50 cents, closing at $1.78 with no loads traded. An unfilled bid for a load of blocks and an uncovered offer for a load of barrels remained at the close of spot trading. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 60.00 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are 5 cents lower to 21 cents higher on moderate trading activity. The butter price increased by 2.00 cents, closing at $2.30 with one load traded. There were two unfilled bids and eight uncovered offers remaining at the close, which suggests limited upside price potential. Grade A nonfat dry milk gained a penny to close at $1.27 with one load traded. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. Butter futures are steady to 1.27 cents higher. Dry whey futures are 0.75 to 1.00 cents higher. Cheese futures are 0.80 cents lower to 1.70 cents higher.

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Further Cash Weakness Could Unfold

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	4 to 8 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	2 to 3 Higher
Soybean Futures:	4 to 5 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	Steady to $1 Higher
Wheat Futures:	Mixed

MILK:

Traders will be hesitant today to take a position ahead of spot trading. The close of spot cheese on Thursday would suggest weakness could carry through today. This may keep pressure on Class III milk futures with further selling possible. Milk futures did not follow the cash market lower as much as they should have in correlation to cash prices. However, further weakness could trigger heavier selling. The September contract is mostly priced and will show limited price movement until the Federal Order class prices are announced. The September contract remains open to the full movement of the underlying cash.

CHEESE:

The uncovered offers in the cash cheese market on Thursday suggest further weakness today. Buyers may hold back due to the aggressive selling interest in blocks. Sellers may try to move more cheese at the best price they can before further weakness develops. They may leapfrog over each other, resulting in continued weakness.

BUTTER:

The butter price could go either way. The price is low enough that buying interest could increase as preparation is made for later demand. However, butter production continues, and supply remains sufficient for demand. Even with greater buying interest, the upside potential may be limited.

Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - Cheese Demand is Steady to Lighter

OVERVIEW:

Cheese prices reached the threshold and fell back significantly in the case of blocks. Class III futures reacted quickly, with September falling limit down for a brief period of time. Fortunately, futures did recover somewhat but closed with significant losses.

MILK:

It was a dismal day for Class III futures as cheese prices reached a threshold for now. The aggressive buying dried up, and sellers stepped up to the plate in an attempt to sell loads before prices declined very much. That action propelled the market lower. Class III futures suffered significant losses with the September contract falling to the 75-cent daily limit before the selling subsided. Two days ago, the contract reached a high of $19.20 and is now $1.00 lower. Summer temperatures have impacted milk output, but production remains higher than a year ago. Higher cow numbers and increased milk per cow should keep overall production strong for the rest of the year. Milk is beginning to move to other parts of the country to satisfy the demand from deficit areas for school milk. Processors have sufficient milk to meet demand for dairy products.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.84
6 Month:	$17.88
9 Month:	$17.88
12 Month:	$17.90

CHEESE:

The block cheese price fell back to the lowest level since August 1. The uncovered offers at the close of spot trading with no unfilled bids may indicate that further weakness may unfold on Friday. The market has fallen faster than it has increased and may continue that way. Domestic demand for cheese is termed as steady to light, which is unusual for this time of year.

BUTTER:

Even though butterfat components in milk are running lower due to the hot weather, manufacturers continue to see sufficient cream available for churning. Ice cream production is slowing, and more milk will be standardized for the school systems, keeping sufficient cream available to meet demand.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed steady at $3.9725, November soybeans closed down 15.75 cents at $10.2850 and December soybean meal closed down $2.30 per ton at $295.00. September Chicago wheat closed down 3.75 cents at $5.0350. October live cattle closed down $2.60 at $226.83. September crude oil is up $1.30 per barrel at $63.95. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 11 points at 44,911, with the NASDAQ down 2 points at 21,711.

Thursday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cheese Prices Fall

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	1 Lower
SOYBEANS:	15 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$2.60 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$3.00 Lower
DOW JONES:	130 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	13 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$1.15 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price hit a wall, falling 10.25 cents to close at $1.7775 with three loads traded. Three uncovered offers remained at the close with no unfilled bids. The barrel price declined 3.50 cents, closing at $1.8250, with no loads traded; only sellers showed up during spot trading with three uncovered offers. The dry whey price declined 1.25 cents, closing at 60.00 cents with one load traded. Classes are taking a hit with futures 8 to 67 cents lower. The butter price remained unchanged at $2.28 with no loads traded. There was one unfilled bid with eight uncovered offers. Grade A nonfat dry milk slipped 0.50 cent lower, closing at $1.26, with two loads traded. Class IV futures have not yet traded. Butter futures are 1.12 cents lower to 1.25 cents higher. Dry whey futures are 1.27 to 2.07 cents lower. Cheese futures are 0.50 to 4.80 cents lower.

Fluid Milk and Cream - Western U.S. Report 33

In California, milk production is seasonally declining, but contacts report output is up from last August. Milk is available to meet current processing demands in the state. 

Milk production is declining week-to-week in Arizona but remains up from a year ago. 

In New Mexico, contacts say summer heat is reducing cow comfort and contributing to lighter milk output. 

In the Pacific Northwest milk production is steady to lighter and contacts say summer heat is contributing to declining milk components. 

Milk production is declining seasonally in the mountain states of Idaho, Utah, and Colorado. Demand for Class I milk is increasing. 

Lighter ice cream production in the region is contributing to declining Class II demand. Demand for Classes III and IV remains strong. Ice cream makers are reducing spot cream orders, leaving volumes available for butter makers. Condensed skim milk demand is steady.

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Cautious Over Further Strength

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	5 to 10 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	5 to 10 Lower
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	3 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures:	4 to 6 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures:	3 to 4 Lower

MILK:

Traders are uncertain whether spot cheese prices will continue to rise. Cheese prices remained unchanged on Wednesday, which may be due to prices reaching a threshold. Milk production remains higher than a year ago, keeping cheese output higher as reported on the latest Dairy Products report. Demand needs to improve to keep up with increased production. The outlook for low grain prices with the harvest of an expected large corn crop will keep culling low and cow numbers higher. Bottling demand is increasing as preparation is made for schools being back in session. This increased demand could hold milk prices from falling back anytime soon.

CHEESE:

Spot cheese prices could go either way today. The last time the barrel price was stable for a day, it was just taking a breather and resumed the uptrend. Traders are being cautious in the event prices slip back. There is sufficient cheese available for demand, which may limit gains.

BUTTER:

The butter price just cannot find support. Sellers continue to offer supplies to the spot market, which keeps buyers placing lower bids. Buyers have been able to purchase butter for immediate use and for later demand. This will limit the upside price potential as the year progresses.

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - June Dairy Exports Jump 15.0%

OVERVIEW:

Milk futures were under pressure today. Class III was lower due to steady cheese prices. Class IV was lower due to the decline in butter price. Dairy exports in June increased 15.0% compared to a year ago. Cheese and butterfat exports led the way.

MILK:

It is interesting to note how traders have become increasingly nervous since cheese prices have increased as much as they have. Steady spot cheese prices triggered selling as it could mean a price threshold has been reached. Traders liquidated long positions to take some profits in case the underlying cash falls back. Dairy Market News reports that milk availability in the Eastern region is termed as "tight" due to the hot weather that has impacted milk production. Bottling demand has increased in preparation for schools reopening. Spot loads of milk are available, ranging from $3.00 below to $2.00 above class. Dairy exports increased 15% on a milk solids equivalent basis in June. The export value for the first half of the year reached $4.724 billion.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$18.06
6 Month:	$18.18
9 Month:	$18.07
12 Month:	$18.03

CHEESE:

June cheese exports jumped 34.4% over June 2024, totaling 52,191 metric tons. Year-to-date exports are 11.1% above a year ago and on the way to a record-breaking year. Lactose exports increased 14.1%, totaling 44,066 metric tons, with year-to-date exports 0.6% below a year ago. Whey exports gained 15.1% compared to June 2024, totaling 49,760 metric tons. Year-to-date exports are down 4.3% compared to a year ago. Whey protein concentrate exports totaled 8,283 metric tons, up 15.3% from a year ago, with year-to-date exports up 9.8%.

BUTTER:

Butterfat exports jumped 77.0% in June compared to June 2024, totaling 8,769 metric tons. Year-to-date exports are 149.9% above the same period last year. Nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder exports declined 1.7%, totaling 59,450 metric tons, with year-to-date exports 11.6% below a year ago. Whole milk powder exports jumped 107.0% above a year ago, reaching 5,873 metric tons, with year-to-date exports up 46.6%.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed up 2.75 cents per bushel at $3.9725, November soybeans closed up 11.50 cents at $10.4425 and December soybean meal closed up $5.40 per ton at $297.30. September Chicago wheat closed up 2.25 cents at $5.0725. October live cattle closed up $0.40 at $229.43. September crude oil is down $0.45 per barrel at $62.72. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 464 points at 44,922, with the NASDAQ up 31 points at 21,713.