Tuesday, August 26, 2025

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Underlying Cash Strength May Be Limited

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 4 to 7 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: Mixed

MILK:

The sufficient milk supply is keeping demand satisfied and upside price potential limited. Increased demand for fluid milk to supply the school systems has reduced the amount of milk available for manufacturing, but it will not create a shortage. Milk production is higher than a year ago, leaving a sufficient supply available. Demand from buyers should increase prices seasonally, but the current fundamentals of supply and demand may limit the upside potential of prices. There has always been a strong correlation between milk prices to corn prices, and that again seems to be the case. With the expectation of a large corn crop and lower prices, higher milk prices may not develop.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices in 2024 increased substantially throughout August and then peaked in early September. History certainly has not been repeated this year. Once the strong buying was completed by packagers and recutters in preparation for the holidays last year, prices fell back substantially. Cheese prices have been unable to move above $2.00 so far this year.

BUTTER:

The butter supply is sufficient for demand, leaving little reason for buyers to be aggressive in the spot market. Churning is active, and slowly increasing cream supplies will keep the market supplied. Inventory should decrease as demand improves, but higher production will limit the amount of butter moving out of storage.




Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Underlying Cash Strength May Be Limited

OPENING CALLS: Class III Milk Futures: Mixed Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed B...