Monday, April 7, 2025

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Continued Weakness in Overnight Trade

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 2 to 6 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Lower
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

MILK:

Last week was rough for milk futures as further pressure was put on the market with the implementation of tariffs and reciprocal tariffs. It is uncertain how this will impact international dairy demand. Canada and Mexico have not had tariffs placed on goods under the USMCA agreement, which should leave trade with both countries as it had been, except for tariffs on aluminum and lumber from Canada implemented earlier. This should be positive for dairy exports as butterfat exports in February were up 236% from February 2024, with Canada and Mexico as the largest importers. However, uncertainty will continue until there is solid evidence that the world demand for dairy products will remain strong. If cash trades higher Monday, futures may not respond.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices have been holding recently with limited upside and limited downside. Buyers and sellers seem to be comfortable with current prices. Cheese production is increasing as more milk becomes available for manufacturing. Demand remains lower than expected, casting a cloud over price potential.

BUTTER:

Butter output remains high as churns continue to operate on full schedules. Butter production in February was substantial, adding to the already large inventory. Upside price potential is limited. Retail demand is improving ahead of Easter.




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