Monday, March 17, 2025

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures May Struggle Ahead of Cash

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 3 to 5 Higher
Soybean Futures: Steady to 1 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: Steady to $1 Lower
Wheat Futures: 8 to 12 Higher

MILK:

The decline in Class III futures eliminated most of the gains earlier in the week. Light follow-through selling took place overnight as traders think there could be further pressure on cash prices Monday. The concern over ongoing demand moving forward keeps traders cautious. Consumer sentiment fell 11% on the latest report. Sentiment declined 27% from a year ago as the index moved to the lowest level since November 2022. Consumers are concerned about the economy and higher food prices will change consumer buying patterns. Hopefully, more demand will turn to nutritious dairy products as consumers decide where the best value is. As spring flush begins and progresses, it is hoped that demand will improve to keep up with the gains in milk production and minimize the increase in inventory.

CHEESE:

The decline of cheese prices on Friday solidifies the pattern of limited upside potential. Traders will be less likely to respond to price strength assuming any price increases will be limited. Buyers remain unconcerned over supply tightness and continue to purchase as needed.

BUTTER:

The butter price has been slowly creeping higher with price increases in six of the past eight trading days. The price has regained the loss of March 4. The price is expected to remain choppy as the butter supply is plentiful. The upside may be limited unless demand improves.




Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - Product Output Increases

MILK: The Global Dairy Trade Auction took place earlier this week, with the trade-weighted average down 4.1% from the previous event...