Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - No Payment Expected for the Dairy Margin Coverage Program

MILK:

Milk futures showed limited price volatility as traders found little price direction from cash. This pattern may remain for quite some time if the current fundamentals remain in place. Milk production is improving, providing a sufficient supply for bottling and manufacturing. The February Agricultural Prices report was released today, showing the All-milk price at $23.60, down $0.50 from January, but $3.00 higher than February 2024. The average corn price was $4.58, up $0.29 from January and up $0.28 from a year earlier. The average premium/supreme hay price was $243.00 per ton, up $1.00 from January but down $35.00 per ton from a year ago. The average soybean meal price is not on this report and will be released by FSA tomorrow to complete the income over feed calculation for the Dairy Margin Coverage program. No payment is expected under the program as the income over feed price will be higher than the $9.50 level. Other prices of interest are the alfalfa hay price for February was $159.00 per ton, down $2.00 from January and down $42.00 per ton from a year ago. The all-hay price was $153 per ton, the same as the previous month, but down $38.00 per ton from a year earlier. The soybean price was $10.20, up $0.20 from January, but down $1.70 per bushel from a year ago. USDA estimates corn acres this year at 95.326 million, up 4.7 million from last year. Soybean acreage is estimated at 83.495 million, down 3.6 million from last year. Wheat acreage is estimated at 45.350 million compared to 46.079 million last year.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.76
6 Month:	$17.78
9 Month:	$18.02
12 Month:	$18.00

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are expected to remain choppy with little reason for buyers to be aggressive. Increasing milk production will continue to supply sufficient milk to satisfy the needs of manufacturers. Spot milk prices decreased last week, with the low end of the range at $4.50 below class. Spring flush is moving forward with milk receipts increasing at the plant level.

BUTTER:

The butter supply is sufficient for demand and to build inventory. Inventory is increasing seasonally but is running ahead of a year ago. The strong churning activity provides plentiful supplies to meet demand and for buyers to increase ownership. Extra butter is being purchased and frozen for demand later this year. Buyers are not too concerned about paying more for storage but would rather buy as a hedge against higher prices that may develop as the year progresses.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

May corn closed up 4.00 cents per bushel at $4.5725, May soybeans closed down 8.25 cents at $10.1475 and May soybean meal closed down $.80 per ton at $292.70. May Chicago wheat closed up 8.75 cents at $5.3700. June live cattle closed down $1.20 at $203.65. May crude oil is up $2.12 per barrel at $71.48. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 418 points at 42,002 with the NASDAQ down 24 points at 17,299.

Monday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Little Activity in the Spot Market

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	4 Higher
SOYBEANS:	7 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.80 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.97 Lower
DOW JONES:	78 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	223 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$2.21 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price remained steady at $1.6350 with no loads traded. The barrel cheese price declined a penny, closing at $1.6250 with no loads traded. There were no unfilled bids and one uncovered offer remaining for barrels. The dry whey price remained steady at 50 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are 13 cents lower to 3 cents higher. The butter price declined a penny, closing at $2.34 with one load traded. There were no unfilled bids and two uncovered offers remaining. Grade A nonfat dry milk remained steady at $1.1625 with no loads traded. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. Butter futures are 1.10 cents lower to 1.00 cents higher. Dry whey futures are steady to 0.32 cents lower. The Prospective Plantings report showed potential corn acres up nearly 5 million acres (ma) more than last year at 95.326 ma. Soybean acres are about 3.5 ma lower than last year at 83.495 ma. USDA will release the February Agricultural Prices report this afternoon.

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Remain Choppy

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	3 to 8 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	2 to 4 Lower
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Futures:	3 to 5 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$2 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures:	Mixed

MILK:

There is little anticipation for milk futures to move higher anytime soon. The underlying cash prices are expected to be mixed with no change in that trend in the foreseeable future. The underlying cash prices are expected to remain choppy as buyers and sellers take care of business without fanfare. Milk production is improving, increasing the amount of milk that manufacturing plants receive. It may be difficult for demand to utilize the increased milk production under the current market environment. Demand may remain lower than usual depending on the impact of tariffs on the equity markets and whether there could be a recession. Monday, March 31, is the final day to sign up for the Dairy Margin Coverage program this year. USDA will release the February Agricultural Prices report this afternoon. They will also release the Quarterly Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings report this morning.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are expected to remain choppy as buyers see no need to be aggressive and sellers want to move supply to limit inventory build at the plant level. There is sufficient supply for demand.

BUTTER:

There is quite a bit of butter available for demand. Inventory is building seasonally and running above last year. Churning remains active as plants are utilizing abundant cream supplies. Retail demand is improving as the Easter season approaches.

Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - Fluid Milk Sales Decrease 0.5%

MILK:

During the week, Class III futures advance somewhat in nearby months, but more in deferred contracts. Underlying cash prices continued to chop up and down but did take back some of the previous week's losses. Milk production is increasing as the spring flush is evident in most areas. More milk is finding its way to manufacturing. January fluid milk sales decreased 0.5% from January 2024. Conventional whole milk sales increased 1.4%; flavored whole milk decreased 1.9%; reduced fat milk decreased 3.6%; low fat milk declined 5.4%; fat-free skim milk decreased 5.4%; flavored fat-reduced milk sales decreased 3.5%; buttermilk increased 0.9%, with other fluid milk products up 14.6%. Organic whole milk sales increased 10.3%; organic flavored whole milk decreased 10.5%; organic reduced fat milk increased 8.1%; organic low fat milk fell 17.9%; organic fat-free milk decreased 4.5%; organic flavored fat-reduced milk jumped 30.5%, with other organic fluid milk sales down 17.6%. USDA will release the February Agricultural Prices report on Monday, providing prices used in calculating the income over feed price for the Dairy Margin Coverage program. The Quarterly Grain Stocks and Prospective Planting report will also be released.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.75
6 Month:	$17.79
9 Month:	$18.01
12 Month:	$17.98

CHEESE:

For the week, blocks increased 3.25 cents with 48 loads traded. That is the highest weekly volume we have seen for quite some time. The weekly average price was $1.6345. Barrels increased 8.50 cents with 21 loads traded. The weekly average price was $1.6330. Dry whey remained unchanged at 50.00 cents with three loads traded. The weekly average was 50.10 cents. Cheese prices increased but were choppy. It is difficult to say whether prices have found a bottom or whether further weakness is possible if milk increases significantly, and demand does not keep pace.

BUTTER:

For the week, butter increased 4.75 cents with 64 loads traded. The weekly average price was $2.3385. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 1.75 cents with 18 loads traded. The weekly average price was $1.1510. Growing inventory will keep the upside price potential limited.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

May corn closed up 3.25 cents per bushel at $4.5325, May soybeans closed up 6.25 cents at $10.2300 and May soybean meal closed down $1.00 per ton at $293.50. May Chicago wheat closed down 3.75 cents at $5.2825. June live cattle closed down $0.95 at $204.85. May crude oil is down $0.78 per barrel at $69.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 716 points at 41,584 with the NASDAQ down 481 points at 17,323.

Friday Midday Dairy Market Update - Heavy Trading Activity in the Spot Market

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	2 Higher
SOYBEANS:	8 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$1.40 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.65 Lower
DOW JONES:	735 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	478 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$0.50 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price declined 1.25 cents, closing at $1.6350 with 20 loads traded. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.6350 with eight loads traded. There was a lot more activity that might have taken place, but buyers and sellers could not come together. There were three unfilled bids for blocks and five uncovered offers. There were three unfilled bids for barrels and one uncovered offer. The dry whey price gained 0.50 cent, closing at 50.00 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are 29 cents lower to 14 cents higher. The butter price declined 1.50 cents, closing at $2.35 with 21 loads traded. There were 11 unfilled bids and one uncovered offer remaining at the close. Nonfat dry milk gained 1.25 cents, closing at $1.1625 with four loads traded. Class IV futures have only traded in the July contract with the price up 21 cents. Butter futures are 2.50 cents lower to 0.95 cent higher. Dry whey futures are unchanged to 0.97 cent higher.

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - The Upside Price Potential Remains Limited

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	2 to 4 Higher
Butter Futures:	1 to 2 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	3 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures:	3 to 5 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures:	6 to 8 Lower

MILK:

More milk is finding its way to the processors as milk increases. More cows than a year ago might result in milk production higher than a year ago. A few months ago, milk production was expected to remain below a year ago as the heifer supply is tight, limiting replacements and expansions. However, expansions are limited, but cow numbers have increased. Milk production per cow might be lower than a year ago, but higher cow numbers will make up the difference. The upside potential for milk prices may be limited for a while unless demand improves.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are expected to remain choppy. The gains on Thursday were the result of daily business being done and not the change of a trend. Further gains in cheese prices are expected to be short-lived.

BUTTER:

The butter price has had a nice gain this week, but further upside may be limited. There have been 43 loads traded so far this week. Manufacturers want to move supplies to manage plant inventories. Buyers are purchasing to take advantage of the supply and build inventory as a hedge against higher prices later in the year.

Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - Spot Milk Prices Hold Steady

MILK:

Dairy Market News reports that the spring flush has begun in earnest in the Midwest and Northern Plains. Some areas have seen milk production increase for the past few weeks. Milk component levels are beginning to decrease as milk production increases. Interestingly, milk futures appear to have established a bottom as increasing milk production provides more milk to the market. Some of this might be that some of the uncertainty prevalent in the market over the past two months has settled out with traders gaining more confidence. The feared impact of tariffs has not had much impact so far. Exports seem to be holding well and increasing for some varieties of dairy products. Farmers have until Monday to sign up for the Dairy Margin Coverage program at their local FSA office unless the deadline is extended. The deadline has been extended each year since the program began.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.85
6 Month:	$17.90
9 Month:	$18.12
12 Month:	$18.08

CHEESE:

Cheese production has been steady and sufficient to fill orders. Buyers have not been aggressively purchasing for demand later in the year. Lower demand has left the market in a bearish position, with buyers comfortable with current supplies and unconcerned over future supply. Spot milk prices have remained at a discount of $2.50 to class to $0.25 over class for the past few weeks. Prices may weaken as the spring flush continues.

BUTTER:

Retail butter demand is improving as low prices have made it more attractive, and consumers are purchasing ahead of the Easter season. International demand remains strong as the U.S. butter price is substantially below the world price. Food service demand is not as strong as was hoped it would be. High food prices have resulted in fewer people eating away from home.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

May corn closed down 1.25 cents per bushel at $4.5000, May soybeans closed up 15.75 cents at $10.1675 and May soybean meal closed up $.90 per ton at $294.50. May Chicago wheat closed down 3.25 cents at $5.3200. June live cattle closed up $2.78 at $205.80. May crude oil is up $0.25 per barrel at $69.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 155 points at 42,300 with the NASDAQ down 95 points at 17,804.

Fluid Milk and Cream - Western U.S. Report 11

For California, stakeholders mostly conveyed increased week-over-week milk production output throughout March. However, a few stakeholders also convey milk intakes for March 2025 have been slightly below anticipated volumes thus far. That said, some handler sentiment is significant improvements in recovering from decreased year-over-year 2025 milk production thus far have taken place over the first few months of the year. Spot milk loads are available. In a few cases, sellers are reporting finding a home for extra milk is difficult. A few manufacturers convey unplanned downtime at processing facilities is contributing to hauler delays and increased wait time for haulers. Demands for all Classes are steady. 

Milk production in Arizona is stronger. Demands for all Classes are unchanged. 

Farm level milk output in New Mexico is stronger. All Class manufacturing demands are steady. 

Although farm level milk output in the Pacific Northwest is seasonally stronger and handlers convey a generally milder winter has contributed to increased milk output, a few manufacturers note milk intakes have been below anticipated volumes. That said, manufacturers also indicate milk volumes are meeting production needs. All Class demands are steady. 

Milk production in the mountain states of Idaho, Utah, and Colorado is strong. Some manufacturers in Colorado convey milder winter weather over February/March contributed to better than anticipated milk intakes. Stakeholders note in some parts of the mountain states finding a home for extra milk has been difficult. Some mountain states processors conveyed the butterfat component of recently incoming milk has significantly decreased compared to milk that was being received in January. All Class demands are steady. 

Cream continues to be readily available. Cream demand is somewhat stronger. Cream multiples moved higher on the bottom ends of both ranges. Condensed skim milk availability is looser. Condensed skim milk demand is mixed.

Thursday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cheese Prices Regain Losses

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	3 Lower
SOYBEANS:	16 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.90 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.85 Higher
DOW JONES:	152 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	61 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$0.14 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 1.75 cents, closing at $1.6475 with six loads traded. This gained back the loss of Wednesday and then some. The barrel cheese price increased 0.50 cent gaining back what it lost on Wednesday and closing at $1.6350 with one load traded. Dry whey decreased 0.50 cent, closing at 49.50 cents with one load traded. Class III futures are 8 cents lower to 21 cents higher. The butter price increased 3.50 cents, closing at $2.3650 with 15 loads traded. There were three unfilled bids and five uncovered offers remaining at the close of spot trading. Grade A nonfat dry milk decreased a penny, closing at $1.15 with one load traded. Class IV futures have only traded in the February 2026 contract, posting a gain of 24 cents with 118 contracts traded. This is very unusual for that much trading volume in one Class IV contract and especially that far out. Butter futures are 1.00 to 5.85 cents higher. Dry whey futures are 0.80 cent higher.

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Further Choppiness Expected

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Futures:	2 to 4 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	Steady to $1 Higher
Wheat Futures:	Mixed

MILK:

The milk production and cold storage reports are behind, and even though the reports were not very friendly to the market, milk futures have been holding well. Increasing milk production may keep the upside price potential limited, but demand may be sufficient to hold the market at the current levels. The downside may be limited, but the upside price potential is limited for now. Milk components remain strong but may slip as milk production increases. Milk futures are not expected to see much volatility ahead of spot trading as traders will be uncertain of spot price movement. Traders continue to scalp the market with short-term trade.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are expected to continue in a sideways pattern with limited upside price potential. Cheese inventory is growing, and cheese output remains steady. Production schedules will increase as more milk becomes available due to the spring flush.

BUTTER:

The butter price has remained in a 4-cent range over the past three weeks. The bearish implication of the February Cold Storage report may keep the upside price potential limited for the foreseeable future and maybe longer. Some buyers are purchasing and freezing butter for later use. This will limit aggressive buying later in the year when demand increases.

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Limited Price Volatility in Market

MILK:

Dairy Market News reports milk production in the Northeast region is increasing. There are reports that intakes are heavy and with plenty of milk for processing. It is still early in the spring flush period and may indicate what is to come. Last year, the Northeast Federal Order sought and received permission to dump milk for a period. The same may take place this year if production continues to improve. Other regions are beginning to see milk production increase as the spring flush comes to fruition. Bottling is back to normal as educational institutions have cycled through spring breaks. There was little reason today for milk futures to change much with underlying cash prices showing little change.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.77
6 Month:	$17.80
9 Month:	$18.06
12 Month:	$18.01

CHEESE:

Cheese demand varies depending on location and variety. Unfortunately, demand for fresh cheddar cheese is slower than desired. Fresh cheddar cheese is what is traded on the daily spot market and is used as part of the equation to set milk prices. Inventory is below a year ago, but did show an increase during February. Inventory usually increases during the first half of the year. That was not the case last year, as inventory decreased during some of the early months. There is some anticipation that cheese prices may have set a bottom, but that remains to be seen.

BUTTER:

There is little expectation price will see much upside potential. Inventory has been growing significantly. Buyers have been increasing ownership on price weakness as they build supply for later demand. There have been 28 loads of butter traded so far this week. Retail butter demand is improving as preparations for the Easter season take place.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

May corn closed down 6.50 cents per bushel at $4.5125, May soybeans closed down .75 cent at $10.0100 and May soybean meal closed down $1.50 per ton at $293.60. May Chicago wheat closed down 8.00 cents at $5.3525. June live cattle closed up $0.70 at $203.03. May crude oil is up $0.95 per barrel at $69.95. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 133 points at 42,455 with the NASDAQ down 373 points at 17,899.

Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cheese Prices Retreat

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	3 Lower
SOYBEANS:	2 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.90 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.75 Higher
DOW JONES:	209 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	390 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$0.60 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price declined a penny, closing at $1.63 with 10 loads traded. The barrel cheese prices slipped 0.50 cent, closing at $1.63 with six loads traded. Bids and offers remained at the close, indicating the market is balanced. The dry whey price declined a penny, closing at 50.00 cents with one load traded. Class III futures are 17 cents lower to 7 cents higher. The butter price increased 1.25 cents, closing at $2.33 with no loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 2 cents, closing at $1.16 with 11 loads traded. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. Butter futures are 0.10 to 2.60 cents higher. Dry whey futures are steady to 0.50 cent higher.

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Cold Storage Report Did Not Impact Overnight Trading

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Futures:	1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	Steady to $1 Lower
Wheat Futures:	1 to 2 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures seem to have found a bottom for the time being. It is uncertain whether demand will improve over the next few months. An improvement in demand will be critical to limit the increase in inventory levels. The cold storage report may not have been overly bearish to the market, but it may limit the upside price potential for the coming months. Inventory increased in February despite there being three fewer days than January. Milk receipts are increasing at the plant level as the spring flush begins. Plants have sufficient capacity to handle the milk and should not put too much pressure on spot milk prices in the near term. The uncertainty in the market is how much milk production will increase due to higher cow numbers than a year ago.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices have increased for two consecutive days. Price increases have lasted two and sometimes three days before prices fell back. The buying takes place as orders need to be filled and not specifically to build inventory for later demand. Aging programs need to be maintained with buying mainly confined to an as-needed basis.

BUTTER:

The cold storage report was bearish for butter as the increase of 33.8 million pounds from January was substantial, given that there were three fewer days in February than January. Abundant cream supplies and butter manufacturers running at capacity provided large amounts of butter to the market. This may keep the butter price in the current range for a while.

Tuesday Closing Dairy Market Update - February Cheese And Butter Inventories Increased

MILK:

Class III futures were mostly higher with traders remaining cautious. It has been two days of gains in cheese prices, and traders are wary of a price decline. The pattern has been that prices have increased for two or three days and then fall back. Sometimes to new lows, as took place in barrels recently. Milk production is seasonally increasing, adding to the potential for limited upside price potential unless demand keeps up with the increasing milk supply. Spot milk prices are mostly below class with a few reports of slightly higher prices. Time is running out for producers to sign up for the Dairy Margin Coverage program this year. Signup runs through March 31 at the local FSA office.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.76
6 Month:	$17.79
9 Month:	$18.06
12 Month:	$18.03

CHEESE:

The USDA released the February Cold Storage report today. American cheese inventory increased by 12.1 million pounds from January, totaling 782.9 million pounds. This is 6% below February 2024. Swiss cheese inventory increased 749,000 pounds to a total of 23.7 million pounds and 11% above a year ago. Other cheese inventory totaled 574.2 million pounds, up 11.9 million pounds from January and is 5% below a year ago. Total cheese supply reached 1.3801 billion pounds, up 24.7 million pounds from January and 5% below January 2024. The gains from January were a bit surprising as February had three fewer days.

BUTTER:

Butter inventory in February increased by 44.8 million pounds to a total of 305.5 million pounds. This is a large increase for a month that had three fewer days than January and one less day than February 2024. Inventory is 3% above a year ago and 17% above the previous month. This is likely to keep a lid on the butter price for the foreseeable future.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

May corn closed down 6.75 cents per bushel at $4.5775, May soybeans closed down 5.50 cents at $10.0175 and May soybean meal closed down $2.50 per ton at $295.10. May Chicago wheat closed down 5.00 cents at $5.4325. June live cattle closed up $0.18 at $202.33. May crude oil is down $0.11 per barrel at $69.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 4 points at 42,588 with the NASDAQ up 83 points at 18,272.

Tuesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Dry Whey Shows Further Gain

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	6 Lower
SOYBEANS:	6 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$2.40 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.07 Higher
DOW JONES:	59 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	26 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.26 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 2 cents, closing at $1.64 with one load traded. The barrel cheese price increased 0.50 cent, closing at $1.6350 with two loads traded. The dry whey price increased a penny, closing at 51.00 cents with one load traded. The strength did little to support futures with mixed prices nearby. Traders are interested in purchasing deferred contracts for the long term in anticipation of strong milk prices due to lower milk prices possibly curtailing milk production. Class III milk futures are 1 cent higher to 17 cents lower. The butter price declined 1.25 cents, closing at $2.3175 with 27 loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined 0.25 cent with one load traded. Class IV futures are 4 cents lower to 3 cents higher. Butter futures are 1.12 cents lower to 0.97 cent higher. Dry whey futures are 0.50 to 0.72 cent higher. The February Cold Storage report will be released this afternoon.

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Cold Storage Report Today

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures:	3 to 4 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures:	Mixed

MILK:

The milk production report has been digested and traders are looking ahead to the February Cold Storage report released Tuesday. It is one thing to see higher milk production and it can be another to see whether inventory has decreased or increased. If inventory remains below a year ago even though milk production increases, it indicates demand is strong. Higher milk production and increased inventory would be negative for the market. Tuesday's cold storage report will be skewed when we see the numbers as it compares 28 days this year to 29 days in February 2024. Inventory growth may not be as much in comparison. In the overall picture, it will not make any difference as what is in inventory compared to what is available to the market. Milk production has been improving and inventory has been increasing as it generally does at this time of year.

CHEESE:

It was refreshing to see the substantial increase in the barrel cheese price on Monday. However, buyers may not be willing to bid aggressively for supply as cheese production has been steady. Demand remains lower than expected, but some gains may be seen as the year progresses. The concern is the impact of tariffs on food prices causing consumers to make adjustments to the food they purchase. This could reduce the consumption of products that contain cheese or other dairy products.

BUTTER:

The butter price is expected to remain in a sideways range with buyers able to purchase what they need to fill orders and build inventory for later demand. Cream supplies remain abundant, but there is some indication that the supply of cream is beginning to decrease.

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - Class III Milk Futures Gained On Short Covering

MILK:

The February Milk Production report was bearish, but that did not keep buyers from moving spot cheese and butter prices higher. That was positive, but it did not create much excitement for traders. Milk production is increasing with the spring flush beginning. The increased cow numbers could set the stage for milk production running above a year ago over the next few months. This raises concern over how low milk prices could go through spring and early summer. However, increased milk production may not continue as low milk prices will curtail milk output over time. Class III futures were unchanged to higher except for March as it is mostly priced. Class IV futures did not have any trading activity today closing unchanged.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.67
6 Month:	$17.87
9 Month:	$18.01
12 Month:	$17.97

CHEESE:

Cheese found support today, with barrels showing a gain of 8 cents. The volume of loads traded was positive and could indicate demand may have picked up and buyers needed to purchase loads. Traders viewed this with caution as once those loads are purchased, there may be no further reason for the market to remain supported. Prices need to increase by more than three days to trigger further buying interest.

BUTTER:

Retail butter demand has improved, but inventory has been increasing. Churning activity has been able to meet demand and then some. There are buyers who have been purchasing supplies for later in the year, but most have been comfortable purchasing on an as-needed basis. The USDA will release the February Cold Storage report tomorrow and is expected to show butter stocks above a year ago. However, it will be skewed somewhat due to fewer days this year than a year ago.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

May corn closed up .25 cent per bushel at $4.6450, May soybeans closed down 2.50 cents at $10.0725 and May soybean meal closed down $2.70 per ton at $297.60. May Chicago wheat closed down 10.00 cents at $5.4825. June live cattle closed down $0.63 at $202.15. May crude oil is up .88 per barrel at $69.16. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 598 points at 42,583 with the NASDAQ is up 405 points at 18,189.

Monday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cheese Prices Jump

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	Unchanged
SOYBEANS:	2 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$2.30 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.35 Lower
DOW JONES:	393 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	57 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.86 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 1.75 cents closing at $1.62 with 11 loads traded. The barrel cheese price jumped 8 cents closing at $1.63 with four loads traded. Buyers turned more aggressive as orders increased or the price was low enough to generate buying interest for later demand. There were eight unfilled bids and two uncovered offers for loads of blocks. There were two unfilled bids and an uncovered offer for loads of barrels at the close of spot trading. Traders are reluctant to buy into the strength as Class III futures are 6 cents lower to 22 cents higher. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 50.00 cents with no loads traded. The butter price increased by 2.75 cents closing at $2.33 with one load traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk slipped 0.25 cent closing at $1.1425 with one load traded. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. Butter futures are 0.95 cent lower to 1.90 cents higher. Cheese futures are 0.80 cent lower to 1.0 cents higher. Dry whey futures are 0.37 cent higher.

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Production Report Keeps Pressure on the Market

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	4 to 10 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	2 to 5 Lower
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	2 to 3 Lower
Soybean Futures:	2 to 3 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures:	5 to 7 Lower

MILK:

Milk production in February was higher than expected when the adjustment was made for Feb. 29, also known as Leap Day. The increase of 15,000 head of cows provided an increase in milk production. Depending on milk production per cow moving through spring flush, milk production may remain higher than a year ago. The lower milk prices may not have a significant impact on milk output in the near term as it is hoped that demand will increase, and low milk prices will be short-lived. Buyers in the cash market are uncertain about the impact tariffs will have on international demand. They see no need to be aggressive with purchases and have been able to meet demand and increase ownership for later demand without having to chase the market.

CHEESE:

The barrel cheese price fell to the lowest level since April 11, 2024, falling 14 cents last week. There is little fundamental support for higher prices in the foreseeable future. Spot milk is available at mostly discounted prices with a greater discount likely as spring flush progresses. Cheese buyers need to see evidence of increasing demand before they increase purchases for later demand.

BUTTER:

Retail demand for butter has improved, but it may not be sufficient to support higher prices. Churning is active, providing sufficient supply for current demand and building inventory. The February Cold Storage report will be released on Tuesday, showing how much inventory there is compared to a year ago. Price is expected to have limited upside potential.

Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - February Milk Production Up 0.8% After Adjusting for Leap Day

MILK:

Milk output continues to improve as spring flush has begun or is beginning depending on the area of the county. Based on the February Milk Production report, production may exceed last year during the spring flush. February milk production in the top 24 states totaled 17.0 billion pounds. When adjusted for leap day, production was 0.9% above a year ago. Milk production per cow totaled 1,895 pounds and 66 pounds below February 2024 before an adjustment was made for the one extra day last year. The number of cows was a surprise with an increase of 13,000 head from January. No adjustment needs to be made to this number, it just moves cow numbers in the top 24 states to 8.96 million head. Milk production in the U.S. totaled 17.7 billion pounds from February 2024. When adjusted for leap day, production was 0.8% higher. Milk production per cow totaled 1,885 pounds. The number of dairy cows on farms totaled 9.41 million head, 15,000 more than January. This is a bearish report.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.54
6 Month:	$17.64
9 Month:	$17.93
12 Month:	$17.89

CHEESE:

For the week, blocks fell 9 cents with 23 loads traded. The weekly average price was $1.6095. Barrels fell 14 cents with 11 loads traded. The weekly average price was $1.5750. Dry whey increased 5.0 cents with five loads traded. The weekly average price was 47.20 cents. Cheese prices will remain under pressure due to lower demand, but also higher milk production as seen in February assuring a sufficient milk supply.

BUTTER:

For the week, butter declined by 4 cents with 24 loads traded. The weekly average price was $2.2980. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined by a penny with 11 loads traded. The weekly average price was $1.1520. USDA will release the February Cold Storage report on Tuesday, which is expected to show an increase in butter inventory.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

May corn closed down 4.75 cents per bushel at $4.6425, May soybeans closed down 3.25 cents at $10.0975 and May soybean meal closed up $3.20 per ton at $300.30. May Chicago wheat closed up 1 cent at $5.5825. June live cattle closed down $2.25 at $202.78. May crude oil is up $0.21 per barrel at $68.28. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 32 points at 41,985 with the NASDAQ up 92 points at 17,784.

February Milk Production in the United States down 2.5 Percent

February Milk Production down 2.6 Percent        

Milk production in the 24 major States during February totaled 17.0 billion pounds, down 2.6 percent from February 2024. However, production was 0.9 percent above last year after adjusting for the leap year. January revised production, at 18.4 billion pounds, was up 0.6 percent from January 2024. The January revision represented an increase of 72 million pounds or 0.4 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate.  Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 1,895 pounds for February, 66 pounds below February 2024.   The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 8.96 million head, 75,000 head more than February 2024, and 13,000 head more than January 2025.   

February Milk Production in the United States down 2.5 Percent  

Milk production in the United States during February totaled 17.7 billion pounds, down 2.5 percent from February 2024.  Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,885 pounds for February, 61 pounds below February 2024.  The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.41 million head, 62,000 head more than February 2024, and 15,000 head more than January 2025. 

Friday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Dry Whey Shows Strength

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	5 Lower
SOYBEANS:	4 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$3.60 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.15 Lower
DOW JONES:	102 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	36 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$0.23 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price declined 1.75 cents closing at $1.6025 with nine loads traded. The barrel cheese price declined by 1.50 cents closing at $1.55 with six loads traded. There were unfilled bids and uncovered offers remaining at the close. Class III futures are 16 cents lower to 2 cents higher. The butter price increased by 0.75 cent closing at $2.3025 with 15 loads traded. There were seven unfilled bids with five uncovered offers. Grade A nonfat dry milk price slipped 0.50 cent closing at $1.1450 with nine loads traded. Class IV futures are 6 cents lower with the March contract being the only one traded. Butter futures are 1.30 cents lower to 1.80 cents higher. Dry whey futures are steady to 0.80 cents 0.80 cent higher. USDA will release the February Milk Production report this afternoon.

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Production Report Today

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	5 to 8 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:	2 to 5 Lower
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures:	Steady to $1 Higher
Wheat Futures:	1 to 2 Higher

MILK:

Class III milk futures tried to post gains on Thursday after spot trading showed blocks gained 1.50 cents and dry whey gained 1 cent, but the strength was short-lived. The market is bearish and will need much more strength in the underlying cash before traders change their attitude. The market needs to see positive fundamentals that may indicate better demand and tightening supplies. Spring flush is beginning and increasing milk supply may put further pressure on the market. Demand may not improve much if the current economic situation continues to hold or increase consumer prices. USDA will release the February Milk Production report today. Adjustments will be made to compare to a year ago due to one less day this year than in 2024.

CHEESE:

The strength in cheese prices will likely result from buyers needing to fill orders and not a change in trend. They have little interest in purchasing for later demand unless prices decline. Most of the buying is on an as-needed basis. Buyers are not concerned about the supply. Manufacturers want to limit building inventory.

BUTTER:

The butter price is not expected to move much for the foreseeable future. Churning is active with sufficient supplies available for demand. Buyers have increased their ownership of supply on price weakness as sellers continue to offer butter on the spot market. This may limit the need to become aggressive later in the year.

Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - Cattle Slaughter Declines

MILK:

Class III milk futures closed mixed, while Class IV futures closed steady to lower. Traders showed little interest in picking a direction and tried to scalp the market to hopefully make a small profit. Class IV futures made new lows with nearby contracts falling to the lowest level since early 2024. Manufacturers are uncertain of demand and are selling cheese on the spot market to keep inventory from building at the plant level.

Dairy cattle slaughter totaled 217,000 head in February. This compares with 247,800 head in January and 252,700 in February 2024. The numbers are skewed due to one less day than February 2024. Adjusting by putting this year's slaughter at 29 days as it was last year, the slaughter is comparable to 224,800 head. The slaughter in January was 247,800 with 31 days in the month. But for all practical purposes, the number of days does not make any difference. It is the number of dairy cattle that were slaughtered during the month. USDA will release the February Milk Production report on Friday, showing the same thing, as the comparison needs to be made to last year, which had one extra day of milk production. The deadline to sign up for the Dairy Margin Coverage program this year is March 31. Signup needs to be done at the local Farm Service Agency office.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.59
6 Month:	$17.69
9 Month:	$17.95
12 Month:	$17.92

CHEESE:

Cheese inventory is below a year ago, but there is sufficient supply to meet demand. There are reports that milk supply is tight in some areas, and plants would like to process more milk. That may be due to the plants having positioned themselves to be a net buyer of milk and are unwilling to pay the current spot price. More milk will be available to the market as spring flush increases. This may not last long with spring flush providing more milk for the market.

BUTTER:

The butter price may remain rangebound for a while, as buyers remain unaggressive and supply remains plentiful. Buyers continue to purchase at low prices to increase ownership to avoid having to chase the market higher later in the year.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

May corn closed up 7 cents per bushel at $4.69, May soybeans closed up 4.75 cents at $10.13 and May soybean meal closed down $0.60 per ton at $297.10. May Chicago wheat closed down 6.25 cents at $5.5725. June live cattle closed up $2.18 at $205.03. May crude oil is up $1.16 per barrel at $68.07. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 11 points at 41,953 with the NASDAQ down 59 points at 17,692.

Thursday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Milk Futures Struggle to Find Support

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	6 Higher
SOYBEANS:	4 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$1.00 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.90 Higher
DOW JONES:	57 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	35 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$1.18 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 1.50 cents closing at $1.62 with four loads traded. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.5650 with no loads traded. The dry whey price increased a penny closing at 48 cents with one load traded. This is not enough to support the market as slightly higher futures have slipped back to mostly minor losses. Buyer interest needs to improve, or the market will continue to flounder. Class III futures are 8 cents lower to 4 cents higher. The butter price remained steady for the second consecutive day. This does not indicate anything other than buyers and sellers did not have to do any business. The price remained at $2.2950 with no loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk slipped 0.50 cent closing at $1.15 with two loads traded. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. Butter futures are 0.62 cent lower to 0.50 cent higher. Dry whey futures are steady to 0.97 cent higher.

Fluid Milk and Cream - Western U.S. Report 10

In California, signs that spring has arrived on time, or even ahead of schedule, continue to be relayed from contacts regarding seasonal milk production. Year-over-year, milk output numbers reported remain under those from 2024, but monthly output levels are increasing notably in some cases. Locationally speaking, milk availability ranges from somewhat open to tight. Despite milk output variances, there is a consensus on milkfat and protein levels from contacts in The Golden State, and that is they remain robust, most notably regarding milkfat. In fact, contacts throughout the West are sharing similar sentiment regarding milkfat levels. Plant downtime continues to keep milk haulers managing longer than usual wait times for unloading, according to some contacts. Cream availability, regardless of location within the Central Valley and other areas of the state, remains wide open. There was an increase on the bottom of the multiple range this week, but contacts say customers are unlikely to take on extra loads at the current time. 

In Arizona, farm milk output is growing due to mild seasonal weather patterns. Class I demand remains mixed, as more school districts have returned from their spring breaks. 

Pacific Northwest has been in a somewhat steady pattern regarding milk output, with fewer peaks and valleys than other parts of the West, namely California. 

In the mountain states of Idaho, Utah, and Colorado, milk output levels are generally following similar spring trends as they are elsewhere. 

Cream levels continue to be noted as widely available throughout the mountain states, particularly Idaho. Condensed skim needs are being met. Some contacts share that condensed skim prices have been more variant this late winter. Plant downtime continues to play a role in keeping suppliers busy with readjusting schedules and routing.