Thursday, March 20, 2025

Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - Cattle Slaughter Declines

MILK:

Class III milk futures closed mixed, while Class IV futures closed steady to lower. Traders showed little interest in picking a direction and tried to scalp the market to hopefully make a small profit. Class IV futures made new lows with nearby contracts falling to the lowest level since early 2024. Manufacturers are uncertain of demand and are selling cheese on the spot market to keep inventory from building at the plant level.

Dairy cattle slaughter totaled 217,000 head in February. This compares with 247,800 head in January and 252,700 in February 2024. The numbers are skewed due to one less day than February 2024. Adjusting by putting this year's slaughter at 29 days as it was last year, the slaughter is comparable to 224,800 head. The slaughter in January was 247,800 with 31 days in the month. But for all practical purposes, the number of days does not make any difference. It is the number of dairy cattle that were slaughtered during the month. USDA will release the February Milk Production report on Friday, showing the same thing, as the comparison needs to be made to last year, which had one extra day of milk production. The deadline to sign up for the Dairy Margin Coverage program this year is March 31. Signup needs to be done at the local Farm Service Agency office.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month: $17.59
6 Month: $17.69
9 Month: $17.95
12 Month: $17.92

CHEESE:

Cheese inventory is below a year ago, but there is sufficient supply to meet demand. There are reports that milk supply is tight in some areas, and plants would like to process more milk. That may be due to the plants having positioned themselves to be a net buyer of milk and are unwilling to pay the current spot price. More milk will be available to the market as spring flush increases. This may not last long with spring flush providing more milk for the market.

BUTTER:

The butter price may remain rangebound for a while, as buyers remain unaggressive and supply remains plentiful. Buyers continue to purchase at low prices to increase ownership to avoid having to chase the market higher later in the year.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

May corn closed up 7 cents per bushel at $4.69, May soybeans closed up 4.75 cents at $10.13 and May soybean meal closed down $0.60 per ton at $297.10. May Chicago wheat closed down 6.25 cents at $5.5725. June live cattle closed up $2.18 at $205.03. May crude oil is up $1.16 per barrel at $68.07. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 11 points at 41,953 with the NASDAQ down 59 points at 17,692.



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