Wednesday, December 11, 2024

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Dry Whey Continues to Provide Support

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: 3 to 5 Higher
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: Steady to $1 Higher
Wheat Futures: 1 to 2 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures have seen support for traders as it seems the downside price potential may be limited. This may be temporary due to it being the holiday period, in which demand is stronger. Much of the underlying price movement results from fill-in orders needing to be filled and buyers coming to the spot market to purchase fresh cheese supplies. Milk production is slowly improving with the USDA raising milk production by 300 million pounds this year to 226.3 billion pounds, and next year by the same amount totaling 228.0 billion pounds. This would show no growth in milk production over the past two years but a 2.0 billion pound increase for 2025. It does indicate there will be no milk supply tightness or shortage anytime soon. Traders will look to the spot markets for guidance with trading activity confined to short-term trades.

CHEESE:

The slight weakness of barrel cheese on Tuesday set a little negative tone to the market. The block/barrel price spread is normal and something rare over the past few years. Prices could go either way depending on who needs to accomplish business Wednesday. The dry whey price moved to the highest level of the year and may see further strength.

BUTTER:

It has been a bit surprising that the butter price has been holding. Churning has been active, and demand is being met without difficulty. The price is expected to be retraced somewhat before the end of the year.




Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - Agricultural Prices Mixed Compared to the Previous Month

MILK: The bleeding does not stop. The underlying cash prices provide no support to the market. Tariffs are going to be implemented o...