MILK:
The November Milk Production report was rather bullish with milk production in the top 24 states down 0.8% from the previous year totaling 17.2 billion pounds. Milk production for October was revised higher to an increase of 0.6% from the previous year. Milk production per cow fell 22 pounds below November 2023 at 1,925 pounds. Cow numbers slipped 2,000 head from October. Milk production in the U.S. declined 1% from a year ago totaling 17.9 billion pounds. Milk production per cow averaged 1,909 pounds, down 23 pounds from November 2023. Cow numbers decreased by 5,000 head from October. The number of cows on farms totaled 9.37 million head, up 20,000 more than a year ago. The report is considered bullish as it seems to reflect the impact bird flu has had on milk production. California has been hit hard with the bird flu and this report reflects it. Milk production in the state was down 9.2% from November 2023, the largest year-over-year decline ever. Other Western states showed significant declines. New Mexico was down 5.4%, and Arizona was down 4.1%. There were 10 of the top 24 states that showed milk production declines from the previous year. Texas showed the largest gain of 7.3% followed by South Dakota, up 7.2%. Florida showed an increase of 4.8% with Iowa up 3.4%.
AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:
| 3 Month: | $19.33 |
| 6 Month: | $19.27 |
| 9 Month: | $19.15 |
| 12 Month: | $19.01 |
CHEESE:
The bearishness of spot cheese trading was due to no buyers showing up to do any business during spot trading. Sellers tested the market to see where buyers might be willing to purchase but it seems that buyers have stepped back. It will be interesting to see whether buyers might be more aggressive after seeing the milk production report for November.
BUTTER:
The butter price is expected to remain choppy with limited upside price potential. Milk production in November was reported below a year earlier, but the cream supply has been higher than a year ago. USDA will release the November Cold Storage report on Monday showing the amount of butter stocks compared to a year ago.
OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:
March corn closed up 3.50 cents per bushel at $4.4075, January soybeans closed up 11.25 cents at $9.6300 and March soybean meal closed up $4.90 per ton at $291.00. March Chicago wheat closed down 8.25 cents at $5.3300. February live cattle closed down $1.78 at $186.55. February crude oil is down $0.80 per barrel at $69.22. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 15 points at 42,342 with the NASDAQ down 20 points at 19,373.
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