Monday, December 9, 2024

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Will Wait for Cash Direction

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Steady to 1 Higher
Soybean Futures: 1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: 3 to 5 Higher

MILK:

The first week of December has been good for Class III milk futures. The hope is that further gains might be possible this week as cheese buyers may be more aggressive. There has been little change in fundamentals with milk production increasing seasonally. Spot milk prices hold near class prices, indicating that milk production is not overwhelming the market. Milk production continues to outpace the level of a year ago as cow numbers and milk production per cow remains higher. Class IV futures were lower last week even though the butter price increased. This had already been factored in leaving traders unaggressive.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are expected to be choppy with buyers and sellers taking care of business as needed. There may be limited upside price potential due to much of the holiday demand for cheese having been met. Some buying is taking place just because prices are low and the downside price risk may be limited. Mostly, buyers will purchase on an as-needed basis.

BUTTER:

The upside potential for the butter price may be limited. Churning is active providing sufficient supply to the market along with higher inventory. Buyers have been purchasing due to the low price and want to increase ownership as a hedge against upside risk. Buyers are rather complacent and not expected to be aggressive.




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