Wednesday, October 2, 2024

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Uncertainty if Butter and Cheese Have Found Support

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 4 Higher
Soybean Futures: Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures: $6 to $8 Lower
Wheat Futures: 4 to 6 Higher

MILK:

It is positive to see Class III contracts in 2025 remaining supported with March and later contracts making new highs. Some selling pressure was seen overnight as traders are uncertain whether buyers will turn more aggressive at the lower prices. Spot butter and cheese prices are searching for support with buyers still not very anxious about the lack of supply through the end of the year. The low prices should stimulate buying interest, but it may not develop rapidly. Harvest is progressing rapidly in the Corn Belt and weather has improved cow comfort. As of Tuesday, there is no Farm Bill, but it should not impact the dairy industry unless nothing is done by January 1. The lawmakers vow they will not extend the previous bill, but are determined to pass a new bill by the beginning of 2025. Federal Order reform may have a greater impact on the dairy industry.

CHEESE:

The barrel cheese price did not see the pressures it has seen in the past two weeks, but it did decline on Tuesday. It is uncertain whether cheese prices have found support. The strength of block cheese on Monday was short-lived with the downtrend resuming on Tuesday possibly indicating further price weakness.

BUTTER:

The butter price decline on Tuesday took back much of what was gained on Monday. With butter inventory higher than a year ago and churning active, buyers see no need to be concerned over supply through the end of the year.




Thursday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cash and Futures Show Little Interest

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY: CORN: 4 Higher SOYBEANS: 12 Higher SOYBEAN MEAL: ...