Tuesday, September 3, 2024

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Will Be Cautious Ahead of Cash Trade

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Higher
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: 1 to 3 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $4 to $5 Higher
Wheat Futures: 3 to 5 Lower

MILK:

Overnight trade indicates traders will continue to support deferred contracts. The strength of underlying cash cheese Friday may continue Tuesday as the strength may increase buying interest. The current level of milk production is adequate to meet the needs of the industry, but there is concern the supply could tighten as demand increases. Milk production may remain below a year ago if the current trend continues. Cow numbers are not expected to increase significantly due to a tight supply of replacements. Culling is slowing but production per cow may not improve as it usually does when new heifers continue to enter the herds.

CHEESE:

The large increase in cheese prices Friday may bring more buyers into the market as they become concerned over the upside price potential. The strategy of holding back to purchase on price declines may not be advantageous anymore as price breaks may not happen in the near term. Waiting for a break to purchase has resulted in paying more for cheese.

BUTTER:

The butter price is supported and likely will find further buying interest this week. Demand is improving seasonally, which should increase the demand on the cash market. The higher inventory may not last long if demand improves and churning remains at the current level.




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