Monday, September 23, 2024

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Production Report May Pressure Prices

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 4 to 6 Higher
Soybean Futures: 10 to 13 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $4 Higher
Wheat Futures: 8 to 10 Higher

MILK:

The August Milk Production report was negative with milk production in the top 24 states up 0.1% from a year ago and U.S. milk production just 0.1% below. Milk output to remain that strong in August is impressive with milk production per cow showing a strong increase. This may indicate to dairy product buyers that there is no concern over a tighter milk supply through the end of the year. This may put further pressure on the barrel cheese price after reaching a record high last week. The increase in dairy cattle slaughter from July did not reduce cow numbers, but the decline in slaughter compared to a year ago shows that farms are holding on to cows due to the high replacement prices. Traders will be cautious ahead of spot trading.

CHEESE:

The weakness of cheese prices to close out the week may continue today as buyers hold back to see how aggressive sellers will be. Barrels may have a price void under the market as the strong buying interest of last week seems to have been satisfied.

BUTTER:

The butter price may have a difficult time moving above $3.00 as the aggressive buying to build stocks ahead of Fall demand and the holiday period may already have been accomplished. Inventory is higher than a year ago and churning is active. The market seems comfortable with the current supply.




December Milk Production up 4.6 percent

December Milk Production up 4.6 percent         Milk production in the 24 major States during December totaled 18.8 billion pounds, up 4.6 p...