Wednesday, July 10, 2024

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Choppy Trading Activity Expected

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: 1 to 3 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: Steady to 1 Higher
Wheat Futures: 3 to 4 Lower

MILK:

The pressure on Class III milk futures was not the result of lower cheese prices but the inability of spot cheese to hold the initial gains on Tuesday. Milk production is not overwhelming the market and is expected to remain below year-earlier levels for much of the year. Higher milk prices and the potential for those prices to hold the rest of the year may reduce culling as farms want to keep stalls full and milk flowing. The need to cull for income is lower due to the rising interest in beef on dairy. This has improved income significantly on many operations. Lower feed prices and the potential for further weakness will improve income over feed costs. This may allow some lower-producing cows to remain in the herd as they may pay for themselves.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are not expected to move very much in the near term. Prices are expected to remain choppy. There is sufficient supply for demand even though cheese production has not exceeded year-earlier levels. Higher prices were met with selling interest on Tuesday. Lower prices will generate more aggressive buying interest. This may keep the market choppy.

BUTTER:

The butter price is maintaining the higher level at which buyers and sellers are comfortable doing business. The price is supported and expected to increase as buyers turn more aggressive as they look ahead to upcoming demand.



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