Monday, July 1, 2024

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Mixed Trading Activity Expected

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures: 5 to 7 Higher

MILK:

Class III milk futures have been choppy but struggling overall. The trend is sideways to lower. There is much anticipation for higher milk prices as the year progresses but traders have been disappointed underlying cash has not been consistently trending higher. Milk production in the country has been steady to lower with further impact to be seen from hot weather. Spot milk remains available at a discount of $1.00 to $2.00 under class. This will be changing over the next weeks as production will decline seasonally. Cow numbers remain below a year ago but are increasing as culling slows. This could have a greater impact later in the year. Feed prices are expected to remain reasonable and potentially lower than they currently are which should maintain or increase milk production per cow.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices were choppy last week with diverging prices common. This pattern may be repeated this week as buyers and sellers accomplish the business they need to take care of. Buyers and sellers seem to be comfortable in the current price range buying on weakness and selling on strength.

BUTTER:

There may be further strength in butter as buyers may be more aggressive this week. Price will reach a level at which sellers will be more aggressive, but that may be at a higher price. As long as buyers want to increase ownership and bid higher to obtain supply, sellers will hold back.




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