Monday, July 8, 2024

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - Class III Futures Post Further Gains

MILK

Nearby milk futures found some strength over the past three days, but traders remain cautious over continued price strength. The underlying cash had been choppy with prices in a sideways range. There is no shortage of milk for bottling or manufacturing. However, spot milk prices are much stronger than a year ago with some buyers indicating the excess has nearly dried up. Buyers need to go out and look for supplies rather than receiving calls offering extra milk. Summer weather has had an impact on milk production as it seasonally does. Milk production has been running below a year ago, which could become a greater issue and provide more support to the market as the year progresses. Milk futures in the 2025 contracts show little reaction to the strength of underlying cash as contracts remain in a recent downtrend.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month: $20.29
6 Month: $20.15
9 Month: $19.64
12 Month: $19.38

CHEESE

Cheese prices found buyer interest with greater strength for blocks. The block/barrels price spread changes positions frequently depending on which business needs to be done and how aggressively each day. The cheese supply is not tight as sufficient milk is available for manufacturing. Buyers are looking ahead to upcoming demand but have not yet felt the need to bid higher to obtain supply. Some cheese has already been purchased ahead when prices have dipped leaving buyers strategically positioning themselves in the market.

BUTTER

The butter prices slipped today but remains supported. The cream supply is tightening resulting in churning to decrease. However, inventory is higher than a year ago, leaving buyers comfortable with the current supply and demand balance of the market. The price is expected to trend higher as the summer progresses.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed down 16.25 cents per bushel at $4.0775, November soybeans closed down 30.25 cents at $10.9950 and December soybean meal closed down $11.10 per ton at $321.40. September Chicago wheat closed down 20.00 cents at $5.7050. August live cattle closed down $2.08 at $184.35. August crude oil is down $0.89 per barrel at $82.27. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 31 points at 39,345 with the NASDAQ is up 51 points at 18,404.




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