Wednesday, June 26, 2024

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Lower Cheese Inventory May Support Prices

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 10 to 15 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures: 3 to 8 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: 1 to 3 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures may have been overdone to the downside Tuesday, prompting the higher overnight trade. Support might also stem from cheese stocks in May being below a year ago. If demand increases and milk production remains below a year ago, the supply could tighten, resulting in higher milk prices. However, the increase in cow numbers moving the nation's dairy herd to the highest level since October could result in increased milk output later in the year. Summer weather will take its toll on cow comfort and milk production but it is difficult to say how much impact it will have. Farms have made great strides in keeping cows comfortable and milk output strong.

CHEESE:

Cheese inventory generally increased in May and the decline in inventory is friendly to the market. The only category of cheese showing an increase from April was the Other Cheese category. This is any cheese not considered American or Swiss. Cheese buyers may not be aggressive Wednesday if cheese is offered on the spot market.

BUTTER:

It has been a bit surprising buyers have not been more aggressive at the lower prices. The butter price is unlikely to decline below $3.00, but there is sufficient supply for demand, which may leave the price in a range. A tightening cream supply will reduce output in the coming weeks.




August Milk Production in the United States down 0.1 Percent

August Milk Production up 0.1 Percent          Milk production in the 24 major States during August totaled 18.1 billion pounds, up 0.1 perc...