Tuesday, May 14, 2024

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Trader Optimism to Continue

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Higher
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 3 Higher
Soybean Futures: 6 to 8 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures: 1 to 3 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures continue to climb higher as greater optimism, has gripped the market supported by the strength of underlying cash. The perception is for milk supply to remain below last year's level for the rest of the year even though prices improve. A reduced heifer replacement supply may be a limiting factor for improving milk production. The perception is that demand will improve seasonally tightening available supply. If demand increases but at a reduced pace than a year ago, then there may not be a tighter supply. Higher milk prices will increase the desire of farms to increase milk production if possible. A tighter milk supply may result in milk plants lifting quotas to entice producers to increase milk production. Milk futures are expected to be higher ahead of cash in anticipation of further strength.

CHEESE:

Cheese is nearing the $2.00 level which we have not seen for quite some time. The strength of prices was not anticipated this early in the year, but buyers have been aggressive as the concern over tightening supply has caused buyers to become aggressive. Sellers are holding back to see how aggressive buyers will be.

BUTTER:

The $3.00 level in butter may be price support and any price weakness to that level or below will increase buying interest. Price may shop around near this level for a time, but is expected to increase over time as demand improves and churning activity slows during the summer.



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