Monday, May 6, 2024

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Anticipate Further Gains

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 6 to 10 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Higher
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: 2 to 4 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures: 6 to 8 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures were very strong last week and the trend may continue Monday. Futures are 8 to 12 higher with good trading activity in the overnight market. Traders are not waiting for spot trading to provide direction but anticipate further strength. The attitude of traders turned bullish, fueled by the strength of underlying cash. Manufacturing is active due to sufficient milk supply. Spot milk continues to hold a discount to cash with prices from $1.00 to $3.00 below class. Milk production continues to improve but remains lower than a year ago. USDA will release the March Dairy Products report Monday afternoon and will show the level of dairy product production for the month.

CHEESE:

Blocks have moved to the highest level since October while barrels have moved to the highest level since March 2023. It has been a surprise to see this strength this early. Buyers have turned aggressive as they look ahead to upcoming demand later in the year rather than purchasing on an as-needed basis.

BUTTER:

Buyers have been more aggressive and higher prices are spurring increased buying interest as buyers purchase ahead of further price increases. Retail and food service demand is termed as steady. It will be interesting to see if export demand has improved. Dairy exports for March will be released this week.



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