MILK
The recent bullishness of Class III futures came to an abrupt halt with contracts declining substantially over the past two days. The pressure came more from the decline of dry whey, but the inability of cheese prices to follow through higher was a disappointment to the trade. Milk production in the Northeast is still trending higher in most cases but seems to be leveling off in others. It would be too early for the spring flush to be finished but milk production continues to run below a year ago which may result in a spring flush that will be less robust. However, there is sufficient milk production to satisfy demand leaving little concern over supply in the near term. There continue to be reports of smaller farms selling out with the cows moving to a large farm and assuming the space at the milk plant. Much of this is due to farmers who are retiring with no one to take over the operation.
AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES
| 3 Month: | $17.02 |
| 6 Month: | $17.72 |
| 9 Month: | $17.94 |
| 12 Month: | $17.96 |
CHEESE
USDA released the March Cold Storage report which was friendly to cheese. All categories of cheese are right in line with the levels of inventory a year ago. American cheese inventory declined 4.9 million pounds from February totaling 825.6 million pounds. It is unusual for cheese stocks to decline during this time of year and may provide further support to the market as the year progresses if demand increases. Swiss cheese inventory increased 885,000 pounds totaling 22,9 million pounds. Other cheese inventory increased 5.0 million pounds from February totaling 610.8 million pounds. Total cheese inventory increased by 1.0 million pounds totaling 1,459 billion pounds.
BUTTER
The inventory of butter in March increased by 18.0 million pounds totaling 316.6 million pounds. This is 2% above a year ago with the growth considered neutral to the market. This is the highest butter inventory since July 2023, but much lower than March 2021. Butter is in a stronger demand position, which should continue to support the market.
OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY
May corn closed down 5.25 cents per bushel at $4.3775, July soybeans closed down .50 cent at $11.8150 and July soybean meal closed up $3.10 per ton at $349.20. July Chicago wheat closed up 10.25 cents at $6.1300. June live cattle closed down $1.90 at $175.25. June crude oil is down $0.55 per barrel at $82.81. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 43 points at 38,461 with the NASDAQ up 16 points at 15,713.
