Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Limited Volatility Expected Ahead of Spot Trading

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures: $4 to $5 Higher
Wheat Futures: 5 to 7 Lower

MILK:

Monday's mixed close of milk futures did not give traders incentive to participate in overnight trade. The same may be true Tuesday as the underlying cash market seems balanced presently. Milk production is holding well with some areas still seeing increased milk output as spring flush continues. Milk production is lower than a year ago but that has already been factored into the market and is not a cause for concern. The current level of milk production is sufficient for the demand from both bottling and manufacturing. Lower milk output could have a greater impact if demand increases as supply tightens and buyers become more aggressive. USDA will release the March Agricultural Prices report Tuesday afternoon, providing the prices used in the calculation for income over feed for the Dairy Margin Coverage program.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are not likely to fall back very much as lower prices will increase buying interest. The buyers of cheese are not purchasing aggressively for later demand, but are purchasing to fill orders and to rebuild aging programs. Prices should remain supported but choppy.

BUTTER:

Buyers will remain aggressive if the butter price declines, which will limit downside price risk. Churning is active as manufacturers are utilizing current heavy cream supplies. The intent is to build inventory ahead of a tightening cream supply in the summer. Butter demand is expected to remain strong and increase during the summer. 




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