MILK
The pattern seems intact of a few days of strength being met with weakness. The weakness of barrels was more than offset by blocks, but the trade did not care as any sign of weakness triggered selling in Class III futures.
However, that was not the case for Class IV futures as a steady butter price and slight weakness in nonfat dry milk did not put pressure on futures. There is no evidence of the butter price dropping back anytime soon while cheese and dry whey prices continue to struggle. The anchor on Class III price is not only low cheese prices but the dry whey price moving back to the lowest level since Nov. 1, 2023.
Dairy exports did well in February finally posting a gain after 12 consecutive months of year-over-year declines. Exports on a milk solids basis set a record for February. It may not be too difficult to see gains this year as exports will be compared to the low levels of last year.
AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES
| 3 Month: | $16.12 |
| 6 Month: | $17.08 |
| 9 Month: | $17.53 |
| 12 Month: | $17.61 |
CHEESE
Cheese exports in February totaled 41,854 metric tons, up 27% from February 2023. This was a solid again for the month with year-to-date exports up 20% over the same period a year ago. Whey exports totaled 40,724 metric tons, up 6.7% from a year ago. Year-to-date exports are up 3% from the same period a year ago. Whey protein concentrate 80+ totaled 6,351 metric tons, an increase of 10% with year-to-date exports up 17%.
BUTTER
February butterfat exports totaled 2,575 metric tons down 10% from February 2023. Year-to-date exports were down 32%. Butterfat exports continue to struggle but they may gain some traction as the year progresses. Nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder exports gained 3.4%, totaling 65,214 metric tons. Year-to-date exports are 6% below a year ago. Whole milk powder exports so far this year have increased 13%.
OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY
May corn closed down 4.25 cents per bushel at $4.3125, May soybeans closed down 7 cents at $11.7450 and May soybean meal closed down $.40 per ton at $335.60. May Chicago wheat closed down 8 cents at $5.5775. June live cattle closed up $1.53 at $174.85. May crude oil is down $%1.20 per barrel at $85.23. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 9 points at 38,884 with the NASDAQ up 53 points at 16,307.
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