Monday, April 8, 2024

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Follow-Through Buying Expected

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 12 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures: Mixed

MILK:

The strength of milk futures at the end of last week may carry over Monday ahead of spot trading. The anticipation may be that sellers may hold back Monday, waiting to see how aggressive buyers will be. However, there will be some caution exercised as price rallies have been notorious for being short-lived. The impact of the avian flu on dairy cattle could be either bullish or bearish depending on the impact on milk production if it spreads or depending on the impact on consumer demand. So far, it has not had a bullish impact on the market overall. The strength during the second half of last week may not necessarily be related to the flu, but more to immediate demand. Milk prices have been too low, too long and any improvement in demand may tighten supply and move prices higher.

CHEESE:

The jump in cheese prices on Friday may cause sellers to hold back Monday waiting to see just how aggressive buyers will be. It is unlikely the strength Friday was due to the desire to purchase for demand later in the year, but more for immediate demand. Buyers have not been concerned about supply, but that may change if demand improves, and cheese output remains steady.

BUTTER:

Butter price is expected to continue to chop around as buyers and sellers take care of business. Limited downside price potential is expected, which may bring more buyers into the market. Churning is active with a plentiful cream supply. Immediate demand is being filled with extra production being frozen and put into storage for later demand.




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