Friday, November 17, 2023

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Further Weakness Anticipated in Butter

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 2 to 5 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Lower
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 3 Lower
Soybean Futures: 3 to 5 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures: 2 to 4 Lower

MILK:

There is not much to say about the milk market. There is sufficient supply for demand. Milk production is slowly improving seasonally, but demand has not been strong enough to tighten supply. Cow numbers are holding as producers focus on wrapping up harvest and have the cow numbers they want for the time being. USDA will release the October Milk Production report on Monday which will provide a clearer picture of milk production and cow numbers. USDA is being urged to address the milk carton shortage and provide assistance for the ongoing situation that may have an extended duration. It is unclear what that assistance could be if they become involved.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices may continue to be choppy depending on whether buyers or sellers will be more aggressive on any given day. This could indicate there is more of a balance in demand, but unfortunately at lower prices. The cheese supply is slightly above a year ago as output has been strong and has kept up with and exceeded demand. Sellers continue to aggressively move supply to the market.

BUTTER:

The weakness of butter on Thursday may open the way for more weakness today. Buyers may continue to hold back waiting for lower prices as they see sellers wanting to move supply. Churning is active due to more available cream.




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