Thursday, September 28, 2023

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Lower Cheese May Generate Buying Interest

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Higher
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: 7 to 9 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures: Mixed

MILK:

Milk production continues steady with weather much better for cow comfort. Harvest is progressing and, in some cases, is finished as far as corn silage is concerned. It seems there was lot of good quality forage harvested this year. However, some areas are lacking in volume, which will require the purchasing of extra feed adding to the farm expense. With sufficient milk supply available, there is no concern over a shortage of milk and dairy products. Buyers of cheese see sufficient supply, leaving them less aggressive and purchasing as needed. That has not been the case for butter as buyers have been aggressive even though there is no indication of a shortage. The current supply is larger than last year. The spread between Class III and Class IV October futures is the widest it has been since 2011.

CHEESE:

Sellers continue to offer cheese on the spot market at lower prices without hesitation. This keeps buyers on the sideline and purchasing when offers are lowered. The current cheese supply remains above a year ago and is not providing any solid support to the market. Demand is steady and needs to improve before cheese prices might trend higher.

BUTTER:

Record high butter price Wednesday will have the spot market seeing a lot of attention Thursday. Without the concern over butter supply and stocks above a year ago, it is surprising price has moved to this level. A price void could be developing under the market.




Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Limited Trade Activity Expected

OPENING CALLS: Class III Milk Futures: 2 to 5 Lower Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed ...