Thursday, September 14, 2023

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Remain Reluctant to Add Premium

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: 2 to 6 higher
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: 4 to 6 Lower

MILK:

At least there was some stability in milk futures as underlying cash increased. The increase of cheese prices should have garnered higher Class III futures than it did. Futures fell further earlier this week than underlying cash would suggest and the rebound Wednesday was not as much as it should have been. However, traders seem reluctant to put premium into the market as it remains choppy. Milk production is lower with cow numbers decreasing, but supply is sufficient and international demand lackluster. Cooler weather has improved cow comfort and will improve production, but output is expected to remain below what it was a year ago through the rest of the year.

CHEESE:

With the increase of spot cheese prices Wednesday, buyers may be aggressive Thursday as they may want to purchase cheese before prices move much higher. There may be a limit to how high prices will move due to the current balance of supply and demand.

BUTTER:

Price moving above the previous high and back to the level it was in December 2022 bodes well for the market. This could result in greater buying interest as both time of year and the potential for increased demand would be supportive. Butter futures currently hold a discount to cash.





Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Wait for Cash Direction

OPENING CALLS: Class III Milk Futures: Mixed Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed B...