Friday, September 22, 2023

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Class III Futures May Bounce

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Higher
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 5 to 7 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: 1 to 2 Higher

MILK:

There is hope the liquidation of Class III milk futures has run its course. However, that will be up to what takes place during spot trading. Cheese prices should be low enough to increase buyer interest. Cheese plants have not had a flush of milk that would have allowed for heavy cheese production, increasing the availability as much as the recent drop in cheese prices would suggest. Milk production has rebounded from the hot weather of a couple weeks ago, but it is not overwhelming the market. Spot milk continues to be tight with available milk running as much as $1.50 over class. Some plants would like to purchase extra milk but are relying on patrons and contracted milk for supply.

CHEESE:

Sellers have been aggressive this week, wanting to move cheese. Buyers saw their aggressiveness and held back purchasing on the way down. Once selling has run its course, buyers may step back in to take advantage of the lower prices. The large price difference between butter and cheese should provide some support.

BUTTER:

The market has shown surprising strength this week. It may be difficult for the price to move above $3.00 as overall fundamentals do not suggest continued higher prices. However, buyers have turned aggressive, wanting to increase ownership of supply for orders and expected demand in the fourth quarter.




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