Wednesday, August 30, 2023

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Cheese May Show Further Strength

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 3 to 5 Higher
Soybean Futures: 4 to 6 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures: 5 to 7 Higher

MILK:

Class III milk futures might see some strength prior to spot trading Wednesday. The action of spot cheese prices Tuesday suggests further buyer interest will be evident Wednesday. Higher underlying cash would push milk futures higher. The September contract is now the front-month as August ended trading Tuesday. USDA will announce the Federal Order class prices Wednesday. The trade anticipates a Class III price of $17.18 and a Class IV price of $18.91. This would compare to the July Class III price of $13.77 and a Class price of $18.26. This will be a vast improvement for Class III but still lower than desired. Class IV futures may struggle Wednesday as butter is having difficulty finding support.

CHEESE:

Overall, cheese is expected to remain choppy but with a bias to the upside. Buyers may be more aggressive now that cheese production is slowing, and they look ahead to upcoming demand though the end of the year. There seems to be more upside price potential than downside potential. Buyers may not want to take a chance on cheese prices remaining here or at lower prices through the end of the year. They may be more aggressive to improve ownership of supply.

BUTTER:

Buyers have no concern over butter supply. There is sufficient supply to meet demand in the country through regular channels as well as sellers offering more on the daily spot market. Buyers are willing to purchase what is being offered without difficulty. This increases supply for later in the year which may limit upside price potential.



Tuesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Global Dairy Trade Gains 1.8 Percent

MILK Milk futures are in line with underlying cash and moving in relationship with it. Futures did not move substantially outside of...