Thursday, August 31, 2023

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Steady Cash Prices May Provide Early Support

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: 2 to 4 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $4 Lower
Wheat Futures: 5 to 8 Lower

MILK:

Class III futures garnered mixed prices Wednesday as traders found no direction from underlying cash. The pattern has been that futures have moved higher into spot trading and then adjusted accordingly. That may be the case again Thursday. There is a sense that steady underlying cash prices indicate the market has support. Upside price potential may be limited but it is uncertain as to what that limitation might be. Time of year would suggest further gains are possible as buyers look ahead and prepare for upcoming demand. Milk production is termed as steady, but hot weather again will return in many areas, which will impact cow comfort and milk output. USDA will release the July Agricultural Prices report Thursday afternoon, which will provide prices for corn, supreme/premium hay, and the All-milk price used in the calculation of income over feed for the Dairy Margin Coverage program. The soybean meal price is not on the report and is released by the FSA generally the following day.

CHEESE:

Increased demand for pizza is improving demand for those cheeses. Some cheese plants indicate they may not be able to supply sufficient cheese to meet the strong increase in demand for mozzarella and other pizza cheeses. The demand will be met but buyers may need to look for other avenues to purchase what they need.

BUTTER:

Price has been unable to trend higher as there is sufficient supply available for demand and then some. Buyers can purchase without having to chase the market. Sellers continue to offer significant volume on the spot market, leaving traders unconcerned over supply. Price may remain choppy for a time. 




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