Monday, August 7, 2023

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Limited Activity Ahead of Cash

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Steady to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: 20 to 25 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $6 Lower
Wheat Futures: 8 to 12 Higher

MILK:

It will be difficult to determine the direction of cash as traders Friday seemed more focused on blocks rather than barrels. At times over the past few weeks, the focus seemed to be on barrels rather than blocks. Buyers may be increasingly interested in purchasing as milk production is decreasing due to summer weather and reduced cow numbers. It will not be very long before more milk will be needed for bottling for school accounts, reducing the amount available for processing. It will be up to demand to determine whether buyers of cheese and butter will be more aggressive as time progresses.

CHEESE:

The strength of blocks Friday, after holding steady for three days, gives the impression that price is supported and may hold or move higher as time progresses. Barrels may be reluctant as supplies are more available, but reduced cheese production may balance supply with demand. The wide block/barrel spread has become more common and will not result in any quick movement to narrow the spread.

BUTTER:

Supply is sufficient for demand, but lower output may reduce inventory to match last year's level. This would support price as buyers look ahead to the end of the year. Price should regain the recent losses and slowly trend higher.




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