Friday, August 4, 2023

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures May Rebound

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Lower
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 8 to 12 Higher
Soybean Futures: 10 to 14 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: Mixed
Wheat Futures: 14 to 18 Higher

MILK:

The determination of market direction may be up to the strength of block cheese. Blocks will need to hold or move higher, resulting in barrels moving higher. Traders have been quick to react to steady or weaker prices with larger futures price movements versus any strength that takes place in underlying cash. Milk supply is declining and will not be increasing anytime soon. Some plants are aggressively looking for extra milk as milk receipts from patrons decrease. Spot milk prices are strengthening as the milk supply declines. The weakness of milk futures might have been overdone Thursday, providing some buying opportunities. USDA will release the June Dairy Products report which will show production of various dairy products for the month.

CHEESE:

Today may be a day of reckoning for cheese prices. Blocks could provide support to barrels, or the weakness of barrels could pull blocks lower. So far this week, there have been limited loads of cheese traded on the spot market. Buyers are getting most of what they need through regular channels out in the country.

BUTTER:

Traders do not seem to be anxious over the potential of butter price. Butter futures carry no premium to cash with buyers and sellers seemingly comfortable at the current price level. Manufacturers are trying to build inventory for later demand but with tighter cream supply, that may be difficult.




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