Monday, July 10, 2023

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Active Overnight Trading May Continue

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 4 to 6 Higher
Soybean Futures: 20 to 26 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $4 to $6 Higher
Wheat Futures: 3 to 5 Higher

MILK:

Overnight trade showed activity in contracts through January and again in April. That is unusual for overnight trade and especially after a weekend. Traders may be more interested in establishing long-term positions with the idea that prices will not remain this low for an extended period. The potential for July Class III price to be below $14.00 will have an impact on culling rates and milk production. The key will be demand and whether that will increase as the year progresses. Traders will remain cautious as they have been accustomed to the price strength of underlying cash being short-lived.

CHEESE:

Prices showed strength to the end of last week, showing two days of gains. In the past, this has been about as much as could be realized before selling pressure moved price lower again. It will be interesting to see if this trend may be broken now that we are in the second half of the year. Average retail prices decreased during the month of May compared to April, providing some hope that further retail price declines will stimulate demand.

BUTTER:

Price broke above the sideways trading range and may slowly trend higher if churning activity slows and demand improves. A good amount of butter has already been purchased for later demand with contracting being done through the end of the year. This may limit upside potential. The market is expected to remain choppy. 




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