Friday, July 7, 2023

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Continue to Struggle

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 3 to 5 Lower
Soybean Futures: 4 to 6 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $4 Lower
Wheat Futures: 10 to 14 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures just cannot find support. Traders are not interested in buying aggressively with underlying cash bouncing around with price increases being short-lived. Milk production is slowing but it continues to remain strong, keeping plentiful supplies of milk available to the market. July Class III milk continues to make new lows with price overnight falling to $13.89. There just seems to be no support in the market. Dairy exports declined for the third consecutive month with May showing a decline of 13.0% from May 2022 and 4.0% year-to-date.

CHEESE:

It is difficult to determine if cheese prices have found a bottom. Current demand, strong milk production, and slower exports would suggest the bottom has not yet been reached. Lower prices may spur some international demand, but slower world demand may be a hinderance to price strength in the near term. Underlying cash is expected to remain choppy.

BUTTER:

Could it be that butter might be breaking out to the upside and trending higher? The increase in cash Thursday moved it above the range it has been in since late last year. This would be supportive to Class IV futures with some influence on Class III. If buyers become more aggressive, it is likely price will trend higher slowly as they may have no




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